Solar XXX Rated Dancing

Well Our lovely Sol is definitely in the highest of party modes right now.  3 XClass flares in just over 48 hours- two of those, including the X 3.2 Flare just hours ago, blasted out in less than 24 hours.  If you watch the SuspiciousObservers video below, he also explains that in the past 24 hours there were two solar filaments that ripped away, and also another Gamma Burst incoming from across the galaxy.  As sun spot 1748 rotates into earth facing position, any new Flares could trigger direct earth facing CMEs.

.... NOAA has finally upgraded their risk assessment, lol- with an 80% chance of MClass and 40% chance of XClass flares in the next 48 hours.

So my friends, if you're WIFI is wonky, if your cell phone calls are getting dropped, or you can't get your wireless printer to work...... Don't throw them out a window quite yet- they'll behave again once all the solar partying is over.

And if you're out driving, please be a bit more aware of what's going on around you.  It's a known fact that solar activity like this CAN effect us Humans- mentally and emotionally.  Hence the up tick in road rage incidents during CMEs and geomagnetic storms.

I'm keeping an eye on the Sun while packing today- I'll let you know if she puts her dancing shoes on again.



http://www.solarham.net/

The Sun Today : Updated May 14, 2013 

[Active Regions]

Magnetogram

Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 80% X-Class: 40%

Active Watches Geomag. Storm     NO Radiation Storm     NO

Updated 05/14/2013 @ 01:15 UTC
Third Major X-Flare (X3.2)
New Sunspot 1748 is proving to be a big time flare producer. A major solar flare reaching X3.2 just peaked at 01:10 UTC. This is the third such explosion within the past 24 hours. The first measured X1.7 and the second X2.8. Two of the three solar flares is good enough to make it into the Top 10 List of strongest flares during Cycle 24. The active region is still not in the best position for Earth directed explosions, however that will change with each passing hour. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 14 0104 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 14 0115 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 14 0120 UTC
Duration: 16 minutes
Peak Flux: 560 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 14 0113 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 14 0107 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1514 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/05/14/third-major-x-class-solar-flare-in-24-hours-x3-2-on-may-14-2013/

The source of all three X-class events is emerging active region designated as AR 1748. X1.7-class eruption was registered on May 13, 2013 at 02:17 UTC, followed by an X2.8-class flare at 16:09 UTC and an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14). This extraordinary active region is making its way fully onto the visible disk and we can expect more increased solar activity in the days ahead.

Solar rotation is bringing the active region 1748 into view, NOAA/SWPC forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours and high 80% chance of M-class events.

This extraordinary active region is making its way fully onto the visible disk and we can expect more strong solar activity in the days ahead.

Sol Goes on a 72 hour Bender

Well guys, I wasn't going to be posting this morning, but upon seeing that we had an XClass Solar Flare last night, preceded by 4 MClass flares in the last 72 hours..... I dropped everything to write this up.

Beyond the 4 MClass and 1 XClass flares in the past 72 hours, we've also had two filaments rip off, both releasing CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections).  The last CME should give Earth a glancing blow on the 15th of this month.

The XClass flare last night- X 1.7 was a huge visual display (that someone captured on their personal telescope- image below), created a very big R3 radio black out on the sunlit side of earth when it happened.  The CME from this flare will NOT be Earth facing, not even a glancing blow.

We currently have 8 active regions that are Earth facing and two more regions that are now rotating into view- one of those regions is where the XClass flare came from last night.

UPDATE!!!!  We just had another MClass flare a few moments ago!! An M 1.3 flare- I do not have details yet and will post them when I get them.

Below are some of the images and info from www.solarham.com

Events
(>24h)
M1.3
X1.7
M1.2
M1.9
(>72h)
M1.3
M3.9
The Sun Today : Updated May 13, 2013 

[Active Regions]

Magnetogram

Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 50% X-Class: 05%

Active Watches Geomag. Storm     NO Radiation Storm     NO

X-Class Solar Flare
A major X-Class Solar Flare peaking at X1.7 was observed around an active region hiding off the east limb at 02:15 UTC [VIDEO]. This event was also responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout on the sunlit side of Earth. This region is currently seething with activity and will begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Because of the sunspot location, any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest and most up to date Space Weather information.

CME Update: A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced, but as expected it was directed away from Earth. [VIDEO]

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0210 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2347 km/s

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC
End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 320 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Alex Dzierba, Jr. located in Hawaii fought through the cloud cover and managed to capture the X-Class flare through his personal solar telescope. Great job and thanks for sharing!

Updated 05/13/2013 @ 11:50 UTC
Solar Update
Below is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Monday morning. Solar activity is now at strong levels thanks to one X-Class Flare and multiple M-Class events around a new sunspot rotating into view off the east limb. The X1.7 Solar Flare at 02:15 UTC was responsible for a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout, a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 320sfu and Type II Radio Emission (Sweep Frequency Event) with an estimated velocity of 2347 km/s. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced, but directed away from Earth. We will get a better view at the active region as the day progresses. GOES Solar X-Rays continue to detect several C-Class flares, each of which are centered around the new region. There will remain a chance for at least M-Class flares today. Other regions to keep an eye today will be Sunspots 1745 and 1746. Each have a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and could produce a moderate solar flare as well. With the rash of Earth facing Sunspots, the 10.7cm Solar Flux is expected to increase.

From the Watchers site: http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/05/12/two-m-class-flares-and-filament-eruption/

A new active region behind east limb produced powerful X1.7 solar flare on May 13, 2013 at 02:15 UTC. This event was associated with  strong R3 Radio Blackout Alert, Type II Radio Emission and 10 cm Radio Burst. 

This was the strongest solar flare of the year so far.

Strong R3 radio Blackout alert signals possible wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth and degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for about an hour.

Type II Radio Emission occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission

Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0210 UTC

Estimated Velocity: 2347 km/s

NASA's STERO twin probes recorded eruption of X1.7 solar flare on May 13, 2013 (Credit: NASA/STEREO)

A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst

Begin Time: 2013 May 13 0208 UTC

Maximum Time: 2013 May 13 0219 UTC

End Time: 2013 May 13 0222 UTC

Duration: 14 minutes

Peak Flux: 320 sfu

Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 147 sfu

This new region is currently very active and it should begin to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. Considering its location any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) should be directed away from Earth.

This new active region already produced two moderate M-class solar flare, registered as M1.9 at 20:31 UTC and M1.2 at22.:44 UTC. 

There are currently 10 numbered regions on the disk. Regions 1745 and 1746 have Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and are capable of producing more strong flares, and six more active regions developed Beta magnetic field and are coming into center of the disk in the coming days.

OFFICIAL TRAILER - How to Watch the Sun
http://youtu.be/JzG9VWb9ij0
Coming Soon - MAY 18, 2013

Radio Anomaly: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproo...
US TEC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ustec/images...

Sun Dancing..... Impressive CME yesterday

The Sun is dancing a tango again.  Lots of information below, including SuspiciousObservers latest update (bottom).

For the SkyWatchers out there, you might find this article from Watchers interesting:

May 2013 Skywatching guide

http://www.solarham.net/

The Sun Today : Updated May 1, 2013  [Active Regions] Magnetogram Solar Flare Risk M-Class: 40% X-Class: 05% Active Watches Geomag. Storm     YES Radiation Storm     NO

Added 05/01/2013 @ 03:40 UTC Monster Eruption One of the largest prominence eruptions in quite some time was observed off the eastern limb. This image by SDO using the 304 angstroms channel captures the massive blob of plasma in action. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is to be expected, however because of the location, it should be directed mostly away from Earth. Stay Tuned for updates.

UPDATE: The large eruption from just beyond the east limb may have been in conjunction with a solar flare around old Sunspot 1719. This image by STEREO Behind captures the flash of the flare event. The solar rotation will carry old region 1719 into view later this week. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection is now visible in the latest STEREO imagery. Because this event took place beyond the east limb, the plasma cloud should have little impact on Earth.

A spectacular prominence eruption was observed on the Sun on May 1, 2013 at 02:30 UTC. The event was classified as a farside eruption from active region located beyond eastern limb. This was the largest such event in quite some time now.

Powerful blast was unleashed into space and resulting Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is not Earth directed. This region should rotate onto Earth facing side of the Sun in 2-3 days.

Flare probability

At 01:26 UTC, an impulsive C9.6 solar flare was detected. The event was centered around Sunspot 1730 located in the southern hemisphere.

NOAA SWPC forecasters estimated 40% chance for M-class, and 5% chance for X-class event today.

Sunspots

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Beta-Gamma-Delta classified Region 1731 is the one to watch today as it is directly facing Earth. Region 1730, also Beta-Gamma-Delta, is slowly rotating out of Earth’s view. Other than that, Regions 1732 and 1734 have Beta magnetic field and will turn directly toward Earth in the coming days.

Old Region 1719 is coming back to Earth side of the Sun and should be visible in next 2-3 days.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/05/01/solar-watch-huge-prominence-eruption-may-1-2013/

TODAY's New LINKS:
Fermi Close Call: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GLA...

Cosmic Rays, Gamma burst, and Coronal holes

I highly recommend watching SuspiciousObservers two videos from today-  while the sun spots seem to be snoozing, we have a rather large Coronal hole directly earth facing and puking out all kinds of stuff our way, and we just got hit with double punch of gamma bursts plus a huge  Cosmic ray influx.

3MIN News March 29, 2013

CME heading this way folks!

Hold onto your socks ladies and gentlemen, it could be a fun filled weekend as our lovely Sol is in party mode again.

NOAA is showing only a 15% chance of M Class and 1% chance of X Class flares, but as yesterdays massive CME shows, Flares are only one aspect of the Suns energetic activities.  Yesterday Sol had a filament rip off, sending a huge fast moving CME directly towards Earth- due to hit sometime today.  I'm still watching for updates on timing.

More energy to go along with the energy we're already experiencing..... mood swings and headache alert everyone!

Long duration M1.2 solar flare, Full-Halo Earth directed CME

BY 

ADONAI

 – POSTED ON MARCH 15, 2013POSTED IN: SOLAR ACTIVITYhttp://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/03/15/long-duration-m1-2-solar-flare-full-halo-earth-directed-cme/

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Region 1692 erupted with long duration M-class solar flare peaking at 06:50 UTC as M1.2 solar flare on March 15, 2013. The event started at 05:52 and ended at 07:30 UTC. A Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed and it looks to be Earth directed.

A 10cm Radio Burst was associated with the event indicating significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Region 1692 was still classified with Alpha magnetic configuration at 0:30 UTC today.

The fast moving cloud should directly impact Earth by tomorrow evening.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 573
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 07:53 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 15 0631 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Mar 15 0649 UTC
End Time: 2013 Mar 15 0651 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 123 sfu

Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

SuspiciousObservers yesterday, March 15th 2013

SuspiciousObservers today, March 16th, 2013

Incoming CME & Geomagnetic Storm- Tomorrow

Geomagnetic storm / Solar Watch – January 18, 2013

BY 

THE WATCHER

 – POSTED ON JANUARY 18, 2013POSTED IN: SOLAR ACTIVITY UPDATE, SOLAR WATCH, SPACE WEATHER

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Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) are expected to impact the earth in the next 24 hours and a G1-Class Geomagnetic storm will be possible shortly after. Solar activity is expected to go quiet again after these active regions rotate off the earth-facing disk over the next 36 hours.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2013/01/18/geomagnetic-storm-solar-watch-january-18-2013/

C5.8 Solar Flare
Who needs a Sunspot to generate a solar flare? A rapid release of energy measuring C5.8 was detected around a spotless plage located in the northeast quadrant. The quick blast was also associated with Type II Sweep Frequency event with a velocity of nearly 1700 km/s. More updates to follow if necessary.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 18 1710 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1695 km/s

http://www.solarham.net/

SuspiciousObservers has some very interesting things to report today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EPfN1UzG0k

What they don't tell you: http://youtu.be/Xcm9qsVaf0o --Climate Change is more than just warming, and more than just human CO2... a lot more.

Also see this: http://youtu.be/bEo3PBaVha8

A unlikely but relevant risk: The Solar Killshot:http://youtu.be/X0KJ_dxp170

TODAY's LINKS:
Saturn Storm:http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/01/17/cassini-spacecraf...

California earthquake- USGS using their favourite eraser again

We had  major earthquakes off the coast of Baja California this morning- and already the USGS is creatively editing the information.

Dutchsinse posted this video around 4:30am CST this morning- outlining the 6.4 and 6.1 magnitude earthquakes off the coast of California, and two earthquakes in Nevada and Utah 3.5 and 3.2 mag that immediately  followed.  Dutch outlines the earthquakes in a brief report below:

BUT..... by the time I got my lazy ass out of bed at 6:30am EST the USGS had already been doing some creative editing.  The 6.1 magnitude earthquake has completely disappeared from their charts along with the 3.5 and 3.2 in Nevada and Utah. As a matter of fact if you click on the links that Dutch provided  here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkGhkIMiZHc   You'll see that the USGS has oh so creatively combined the two earthquakes into one.  Interesting.

SuspiciousObservers gives this update:

Solar Geomagnetic update Nov 23

While NOAA seems to think that sun spot 1618 is all partied out, (now saying only a 10% chance of a M class and 1% for X Class flare), several other observatories think not.  The University of Bradford Space Weather Research Team are giving vastly different odds of 62% for M Class and 57% for X Class Flares. 

Add to this the fact that sunspot 1619 is now directly earth facing and might be putting on it's dancing shoes too.

We have one CME impact incoming later today, and they're expecting a mild to moderate geomagnetic storm to match, but we're also expecting at least one, and most likely two more CMEs to directly impact Earth tomorrow raising the probability of geomagnetic storms in the higher range.

As SuspiciousObservers notes in his update today (video below) there was another instability on our lovely Sol yesterday that released yet another CME- directly earth facing, which makes this a triple event.

With everything else that's going on, this could be a very interesting weekend my friends.



Updated 11/23/2012 @ 04:45 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
Thanks to multiple eruptions on the Earth facing side of the Sun, two Coronal Mass Ejections appear to be somewhat Earth directed. The first CME impact is expected during the day on Friday. Minor to Moderate geomagnetic storming will be possible heading into Saturday when the 2nd impact is expected. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.

http://www.solarham.net/

Sunspot 1618 facing Earth – Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration

BY 

CHILLYMANJARO

 – POSTED ON NOVEMBER 23, 2012POSTED IN: SOLAR ACTIVITY

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Active Region 1618 keeps evolving and it has now Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration  that harbors energy for M- and X-class eruptions. It produced an M3.5 flare with peak at 15:30 UTC on November 21, related to a halo CME first seen at 16:12 UTC by SOHO’s LASCO C2 coronograph with a speed of 560 km/s (calculated with LASCO/C2 data, not enough STEREO/COR2 data is available for calculating speeds), SIDC reported. Encounter with the Earth can be expected by November 24 with corresponding elevated geomagnetic conditions.

http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2012/11/23/sunspot-1618-facing-earth/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lqk7J53CQGI&feature=g-all-u

SO: Solar System Shift

If you've read Daniel's first paper, then I think you'll find this interesting as SuspiciousObservers outlines the shifting of the solar system.

Our World is Changing: http://youtu.be/woVitezc-zU
Electromagnetic Event: http://youtu.be/uI10tKuLtFU
STARWATER: http://youtu.be/LiC-92YgZvQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=kYSIN5zhoow

7.7 Magnitude Earthquake with Tsunami warning off West Coast of Canada

edited 10:28 4:14pm est
more earthquakes including a 6.3M just over an hour ago- bringing the total to 51

edited 10/28 1:56pm est
Since the first 7.7 M earthquake last night, there has been a constant earthquake swarm- 33 quakes between 4.0 -5.1 Magnitude quakes.


Late last night a 7.7 magnitude earth quake hit the Queen Charlotte Islands off the west coast of Canada- this was followed by several more earthquakes in the 4-5 magnitude range.  A Tsunami alert was issued, and has just been cancelled 45 minutes ago: http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=e03a6e895721fff1&hl=en&gl=US&source=maps

Here is Dutchsinse's report on  the event- please note the amount of earthquakes, of magnitude 4.0 or greater, that have hit the west coast of North America in the past 7 days.

SuspiciousObservers report for today:

My friends, it's not "Fear Porn", it's a reality wake up call.  Our planet is shifting (in more ways than one), and we need to Be Prepared!