Market Profile and Envisioning

Before I start to trade, I envision what is possible and what is probable. This is part of my edge. One of the tools I use for this process is Market Profile.


Today's Dow EuroStoxx50 is a good example. When I woke up, the ES overnight trading showed a weak market. I called the Dow EuroStoxx50 down. I decided that the VAL of Friday was resistance and a rejection of that level would result in a distribution downwards.


I then looked for a lower target. I took an eyeball average of the daily range of the last few days and decided that the VAL of the split distribution of 12 July, both Volume and TPO, was a real probability. So 2635 was where I "saw" the market going to if the VAL of Friday was rejected.


The market happily unfolded as I envisaged and a good morning's trade was had. Had the VAL not been rejected then I would need a new vision, perhaps looking for the POC or VAH to be reached, but I would need to see the orderflow telling me this.