Back from newspace 2011.

I spent Thursday, Friday and Saturday at the NewSpace conference.
I enjoyed meeting lots of rocket friends, both old and new.

NASA was well represented at the conference and It's real clear that NASA as an organization has not digested the implication of the shuttle program ending. There are clearly NASA groups that are in denial, they are trying to figure out how to get back to where they were 5 years ago and continue growing their empire. Some of the NASA people see the possible benefit of greatly reduced commercial flight costs, as it opens up new exploration opportunities that were not there before. There are groups that are not completely in denial they think there organizations have real value and that they can market this value to the new commercial space vendors. What they don't realize is that their cost basis makes their facilities and capabilities unusable by the commercial vendors. The NASA cost model says Falcon 9 should cost 4B to develop, it cost 390M. Their basic organizational operational costs are 10X too high to be viable. If NASA can figure out how to sell services at a commercially viable price then commercial space needs to fly 100X as often as the shuttle did to support the same size workforce at the facilities, its not going to happen. I had three different conversations with three different people in different fields that were trying to work with three different NASA centers, all three thought that the value provided was not worth the price paid. This evaluation varied from unbelievably bad to marginally ok. If NASA wants to stay relevant in commercial space going forward they really need to examine why their costing models said F9 was 4B and Elon did it for 390M. Being wrong by a factor of 10 is not a minor thing.

A lot of the conference was about space futures that border on fantasy. Some dreaming or fantasy is good, it gives you a direction and a focus. If the fantasy is physically impossible then it can be destructive as it makes physically realizable space look stupid or dull. As long as we are using chemical propulsion anything that launches from the ground or changes it orbit in a significant way has to look like a propellant tank, if its not 90% tank by mass its not going to work. The gravity well and the rocket equation do not make exceptions for anyone.
Its not clear to me that Hollywood depictions of space, x-wing, star trek shuttle, firefly, etc have not done a disservice to the real space movement by making things look too easy.


A lot of people have read my recent blog posts and I got all kinds of advice.
At space access this year I expressed my concerns about the economy and the direction of the federal government and budget. A lot of people though I was too pessimistic. At this conference I encountered a number of people that were more pessimistic than I. I've become more certain of two things:
1)Commercial space is ready for someone to make an effort at building a truly low cost launcher, not a half price vax, but an apple II. (See earlier posts if you don't get the reference.)

2)Non governmental funding for space does not yet really exist, and governmental funding is the 5 to 10 yr time frame is really really uncertain.

These two "facts" do not sit well together, will a radically lower launch cost create a field of dreams where if you build it they will come, or is it a fools errand? I can't yet answer that question.

Where too from here?
In the real short term, I'm going to spaceup LA next Saturday.
The Sunday after that I'm going to Small Sat in Utah, I've never been, but I'm going with the specific purpose to try and evaluate what commercial market there is for a nano sat launcher.

I'm also looking at possibly submitting a proposal for an SBIR in the current NASA SBIR solicitation, they have a nanosat specific one that looks interesting. I'm not sure if getting on the SBIR tread mill is the best approach, would I be better off spending the time and energy looking for private funding, or just going slowly along on my own dime?

Artistic spaces

Hi Everyone


This past weekend i went along to the open house of River Studios. A 3,000 sqm shared artists space in North Melbourne put together by the team at Creative Spaces.

Hallway between studios

Communal eating area

Megan Evans at work

Megan Evans Studio space

Walking around this space you can feel the creativity oozing out of the walls. It seems a lot smaller than 3,000 sq m but there are 57 studio spaces housing 75 artists. I only got to see 2 of the 3 levels as Callum Morton has the entire ground floor. Ooh wouldn't that be nice... 1,000sm q to yourself.  

Creative spaces spent 300K fitting out this 3 level building and i must say the tenants look very happy although a little on the cold side. The massively high ceilings and open walls means heating is impossible. 

I do really love the minimalist feel of the place with it's plywood walls, fenced doors and exposed sinks and plumbing. But I think for Kids Style Hub, our space needs to able to be at least slightly heated in winter and a much less industrial feeling. 


I'm going to inject a lot of colour into our hub in the way of digital artwork and 3D installations  to make it a fun, warm, playful space. Our cafe team are busy dreaming up interior ideas for the family cafe and they have some lovely ideas in the mix. 


The first round offers have not gone out yet, i'm heading up north for some warmer weather this week for my last holiday (and my birthday) before the hub chains me up to a 7 day working week for the rest of my life. When i get back i will email out offers. Offers for studio rental will not go out until the space has been finalised. 


Until next week, happy designing. 


Nicole Herrick
KIDS STYLE HUB

Friday On My Mind

The trading environment is hotting up. Volatility is increasing. These are pretty tough markets to trade if you are looking for a trend. Lots of positioning by the big guys trying to second guess the outcome of both the U.S. and European problems.


This credit rating is a real red herring. Credit ratings change when someone can't pay. The U.S. is not in that situation. It can pay. Printing more dollars has not been an issue since 1970. Just look at the exchange rate between the $US and the SFr. It's not even a "won't pay" situation. It's just a bunch of people with their own agendas who may end up not allowing the U.S. to pay, having a huge impact on many people all over the world. If they screw this up, the impact on America will be huge.


One thing I know for sure, it won't turn out as expected by most of us. The market will do its job.


Lots of opportunities in the Euro today, as usual.

Sometimes I just have to be honest.....

I had a moment the other day that I did not like my job. This does not happen very often as I really like the client interaction, the research I do for them and overall helping to grow the economy of Southeast Missouri. It really gives me a charge when I see a new business open up that I assist in the planning stages or a client gets a loan in these times. So overall I really do enjoy my job.But

Thursday Trading

It was classic stuff this morning (London time) and perhaps it will repeat itself in RTH. The DAX first continued the trend down yesterday as it should. There was then some short covering as can be expected, and when that was finished, it was back down. The MarketDelta charts below tell the story.


Now we are waiting for the U.S. to wake up and see if anyone thinks these prices are bargains. I don't think so, but I trade what I see not what I think or hope. Trading a structured methodology where I do the same thing over and over again means I don't re-invent the wheel on a daily basis. I've learned to drive the car and all I have to do is follow the road.

More Than One Way To Skin A Cat

We have had a lot of volatility in some markets as the U.S. debt debacle continues. There are other ways of trading these types of markets if you have an algo.


If markets are "fast", then I can use a faster form of trading. Same methodology, just a shorter periodicity. I let Flo see through the noise that this type of trading brings with it. I wouldn't dream of trying to enter these trades manually as it's way too fast for me, although I do manage the exits if needed. The DAX is a particularly violent market at the best of times but the last few days have seen it on steroids. This is opportunity knocking!!!!


Below is today's chart on the DAX. It's a 6 tick chart from Interactivebrokers data so it's snapshot data. As you can see, the data works. It's important to test and trade the same type of data, as otherwise the testing is not worth much. I use eSignal and TradeStation data as well and the Flo performs differently using each type of data with the same algo settings. The inputs for Flo have been setup for the particular time of day I was trading - 8am until noon London time. The profit for the morning on the chart is a little over 1250 Euros per contract. In fact I managed some of the exits and the profits were about 25% more. For example, I exited that last long as the market went into overbought. I also exited the previous long as it hit my fav fib, which turned that trade into a profit rather than a loss.


The "wild card" for algo trading is the stop and target settings. I can use a dynamic setting or I can fit the stop and target to the volatility of the market at the time, just be looking at what is going on. As I said, I also manually override (Hybrid Trading) when I see overbought or oversold conditions as well as when a target is not quite hit.

I'll turn Flo on again a little before U.S. RTH with inputs that have been optimised for that trading time zone.

Hunt and gather

Hi everyone


Well this last week i have certainly learnt a few things. Like that real estate agents will still advertise and let you put in an offer on a premises even if it's already been let.... Grrrrrr. Oh well, now i know and i can be more aware of how they operate. 


After having my dream commercial property ripped from my grasp, i have also learnt that i do like the thought of having a more retail style premises as opposed to a warehouse property that we turn into retail. Having a retail premises means less space BUT it means less fit out time, more customers and more profit. And so the hunt evolves. We will still have a massive retail floor area, a great family cafe space, a party room. learning centre and photo studio, but the amount of studios we will be offering will be less.   


Starting off slightly smaller also makes sense as we can gain a name for ourselves and in future years we can always move to a larger space or even create new branches.  


This week i have also been chatting with Marina from Kidz Bizz Development who has just launched her new blog to help small businesses in the children's industry in many different ways. Her first 3 posts are packed full of great ideas so pop over for a read and sign up for some free advice and tips. www.kidzbizz.com.au

I would also love to give a big shout out to my good friends at Rubble Art who will be a part of Kids Style Hub. Rubble Art specialises in transforming reclaimed materials into educational activities children will treasure. They can be booked for kids parties or events and they also run classes you can book your kids into. Their philosophy and crafts are just great so pop over and have a look at their new website. www.rubbleart.com.au


Now for everyone who has been dying to know if they have been accepted to have their products sold on consignment, don't panic, i haven't sent out the formal offers just yet. We still have a good 2 months until we open so there is plenty of time. I will let you know in a blog update when i have made the first round of offers. I just want to be more advanced with the property search first. 


Until next week.... Happy designing


Nicole Herrick
Kids Style Hub

Trading Zones

The market behaves differently at different times of the day. It's not the time of the day that has the impact, but the relationship of a particular market to other markets or regular events.


For example, the currencies react to the handing of the FX books around the world from trading desk to trading desk. The world's day begins in Far East/Australia. When the new guys come in, the U.S. desk hands over their FX book to them. The new desk then reacts to news that comes out and their assessment of the late U.S. news. They trade the day until London opens when they hand the book to the English/European guys. These guys do just what the Far Eastern guys did. They assess the news and react to it in adjusting their book. When New York opens again, the process is repeated.


In each of these three time zones we have a lot of activity when the time zone opens and the market has to come into balance. Then there is a period of normal market activity and another flurry into the close of the time zone to balance the book, so it can be handed on to the next time zone. So there are usually three different types of activity in each time zone.


Looking at this practically, I need to trade differently at different times of the day. When I start a about 6am London time, I usually have a good trade coming in the DAX if I see that the ES has moved away from the U.S. close.


What it also means is that I can benefit from this behaviour by setting Flo up differently for each of these time periods. I can do this by having Flo back test each distinct time period separately. I can also map my discretionary trading to meet these vary same time zones.


Today started very quietly but there was a classical VAL/VAH trade available in the Dow EuroStoxx50. The market opened right on yesterday's VAL and drifted up to the VAH. It's a matter of developing a number of pictures in your TP and rolling out the trade that fits. The MarketDelta chart below shows the trade. The timing was easy in this case, as it was the open, but often you need to look at the Volume Breakdown or the Inside the Bar stuff or the momentum asserting itself at the coincidence of the VAL.

Making local online advertising easy with Google AdWords Express

(Cross-posted on the Official Google Blog, Inside AdWords, and Lat Long blogs.)

Today, we're officially introducing AdWords Express, a faster and simpler way to start advertising online in under five minutes. We first launched this product as Google Boost last October for a small number of local businesses. Since then, we’ve continued to improve the product and enabled all U.S. businesses new to online advertising to reach customers with ease. AdWords Express is designed to help local businesses that aren't already AdWords advertisers create effective campaigns—watch the video below to see how you can create and run an online campaign from start to finish in just a few clicks:

AdWords Express helps potential customers find your website or Place page, and gives you a quick and straightforward way to connect with them and grow your business. You simply provide some basic business information, create your ad, and your campaign is ready to go.


After you sign up, the campaign will be automatically managed for you. AdWords Express will figure out which searches should trigger your ad to appear and displays it when these searches happen. Your ad will be shown in the Ads section of search results pages—on the top or right hand side—and in Google Maps with a distinctive blue pin. Customers can see your ad whether they’re searching on laptops or mobile phones.


As with all our ad products, you pay only when a customer clicks on your ad. To make things even easier, AdWords Express optimizes your ads to get the most out of your advertising campaign and budget.

Many businesses are already finding success through AdWords, but we know many of you are looking for an easier way to begin advertising online. Visit www.google.com/awexpress to sign up or learn more about how it works.

Posted by Kiley McEvoy, Product Manager, AdWords Express

Like Poker, The Turn Is Key

I love playing cards. I can't remember not playing cards. At university, we often headed to the pub to play Manilla, the Oz version of Hold 'Em. There are still guys walking around who owe me money from those days. I loved it. I play Gin, and more importantly, Bridge.


But let's get back to Hold 'Em. The turn card in Hold 'Em is a very important stage of the game. This is where I make or lose money. The same is the case in trading. When I identify the turn - the change of trend of my chart - I can get the biggest bang for my risk buck. That first trade allows me to load up and then scale out as the trade develops. A later entry is higher risk and lower profit potential as the end of the trend is closer.


How to identify the turn? Convergence of the EMAs is the first clue and then watch the order flow reverse. You can mechanise things by adding the correct ingredients to an indicator.


The chart below shows the critical turn areas that traders can identify. 

No summer slow down this year

Today is the start of the school summer holidays, and traditionally many of us would be jetting off for a couple of weeks in the sun. However, this year there are lots more people who are using their holiday entitlement to go on training courses and get new qualifications. Those that have a job want to make sure they keep it by enhancing their CVs (in some cases they are paying for the courses

Deja Vu All Over Again and Again

I posted that doing the same trade over and over again is a good way of getting to CP. The last three days have shown how practical this is.


Today, I'm also showing the bar chart side of the trade. This time, it was Flo who found the short, which was good for over 220 Euro per contract after my hybrid exit.


Again, we had a Gap open and could lean on resistance when order flow showed that the new high could not be sustained. Flo caught the entry beautifully. We've been improving the logic of the algo. The exit was clear after we got near VAH of yesterday, looked to an overlapping Profile far to the left and, most importantly, the 99EMA holding. Game, set and match for the trade.That MarketDelta Market profile is terrific. I run a 24 hour as well as the RTH for each particular market. In the case of the DAX, my RTH is for the actual European stock market opening hours which is well inside the DAX futures trading hours.


While volatile markets such as the DAX are harder to master, I think ts well worth it if you are a very short term trader, like I am, as I get my gratification very fast and the trade profit size is larger.

Just Keep Doing The Same Thing Over And Over Again

One of the keys to CP is finding a trading picture and trading it over and over again. Becoming a specialist in a trade allows you to get better and better in both trade recognition and trade execution.


A perfect example is yesterday's post and today's trades, buying VAL and selling VAH. As Yogi said: "It's like déjà vu all over again."

Agile project management

I was going to post a thought leadership piece about closing projects but I have had so many requests for our new Quick Guide on Agile Project Management that I thought I would just post this up again for you all to access - http://www.maventraining.co.uk/media/65/765-agile-quick-guide-1-0.pdfIf you want to book the next course its on the 22nd August - http://www.maventraining.co.uk/course-detail

Anatomy of a Morning

I've been trading a lot of DAX lately. It took a lot of my money years ago when I first started trading it, so every Euro I make is worth double. Being truthful, I think that the fault was me not seeing what "they" were doing. I didn't pay enough attention to the context.


This morning was pretty classic and everything here can apply to any market.


We started with a Gap Trade leaning against the VAH of 15 juky where the flo turned. The idea was to trade down to the VAL of yesterday. A quick 30 points was had as it completed this retracement. 30 DAX points can make my day, even without a colt 45, Harry.


Taking trades that have a fit with a vision make a lot of sense. Trading indicators is like trying to drive a car by just looking at the instruments, without taking into account the traffic and the road.

A Trader Ready For Live

One of the guys I have been working with for a while is just about to go live. He's the latest one amongst the ones I have been mentoring.

I gave him a detailed training plan and then I mentored him daily by email using screen shots. There was an occasional GoToMeeting.

On his side was an incredible amount of work. He really educated himself with replay and SIM trading, even reducing his working hours so he had enough time to SIM trade. He back tested and rewrote his trading plan (TP) until he had evolved it into what he needed. He kept annotated screenshots of his trades and recorded all the stats.

He did what was required and more. Now he is about to reap the benefits, he'll trade live while he keeps his job until he proves to himself that he can provide for his family from trading. It took him a year. The pic below is a typical week now.

This is what it takes to succeed. He's not the only one to have done this. I'm working with a few guys at the moment who have recently gone live and made it. I get a great amount of pleasure in their success. When I started this blog almost 500 posts ago, I said that I thought that most people could learn how to trade CP using a structured and back tested methodology, if they did the work and were properly capitalised. This proposition has proved to be true many times now.

All of you still on the road to CP can make it if you put in the work and develop the right mental attitude.

Market Profile and Envisioning

Before I start to trade, I envision what is possible and what is probable. This is part of my edge. One of the tools I use for this process is Market Profile.


Today's Dow EuroStoxx50 is a good example. When I woke up, the ES overnight trading showed a weak market. I called the Dow EuroStoxx50 down. I decided that the VAL of Friday was resistance and a rejection of that level would result in a distribution downwards.


I then looked for a lower target. I took an eyeball average of the daily range of the last few days and decided that the VAL of the split distribution of 12 July, both Volume and TPO, was a real probability. So 2635 was where I "saw" the market going to if the VAL of Friday was rejected.


The market happily unfolded as I envisaged and a good morning's trade was had. Had the VAL not been rejected then I would need a new vision, perhaps looking for the POC or VAH to be reached, but I would need to see the orderflow telling me this.

10 weeks to go...

Hi Everyone

Sorry this weeks blog post is so late, this past week has been mammoth! I have made an offer on several properties and hope to secure our new space this coming week! I cannot tell you how excited that makes me. It's only 10 weeks until we officially launch, I am certainly going to be an extra busy woman to get our premises fitted out in time. Sleep is non existent at the moment as every night I lay in bed dreaming up ideas to make our space brilliant. 

I have sent out the terms and conditions for on consignment products to read through to most people but I will send it out to the rest very shortly so don't panic if you haven't received them yet. Very soon we will be emailing out offers of on consignment placement for you to accept.

As soon as the premises is secured i can send out information on the cost of design studio rentals as this really depends on our costs and how much space we can offer everyone.

I hope everyone is having a great winter, I'm loving these sunny days and mild temperatures.

Happy designing

Nicole Herrick
KIDS STYLE HUB

Quiet Friday

Not much happening today except Google and Citi came out with good numbers. The ES had a good rhythm using Renkos. Flo caught a good trade as you can see on the chart. My fav Fib was working well too. These quiet markets can give decent profits if I keep my discipline. It's watching paint dry, but I walk around and look at the mountains while I'm waiting or walk downstairs for an espresso. Anything to make sure I don't go off piste.

I finished writing the blog and added the pic and then the sentiment number came out. I was short going into it and was handed a present in a blink. Then "they" ran it up to kill whoever had survived the dip down. Reminds me of the joke about the van driver that had knocked an old lady down and yelled "watch out" as he did it. Luckily, she wasn't hurt and replied: "Why, are you coming back?"

Stops Can Be Damaging To Your Wealth & Happy Bastille Day

Today is Bastille Day and we had a great fireworks display in the valley right in front of our living room. It was spectacular. Happy holiday to all of our French friends.


One of the most significant blocks to CP are the incorrect placement of stop losses. I've written about this before and I can't write about it often enough.


My stop losses are placed at a point where I know that the trade is wrong. This is a critical part of both my profitability and win rate. I identify where the stop must be prior to entering the trade. The level of the stop impacts my position size. I try and keep my risk per trade uniform so position sizing plays an important part.


If the amount of the stop loss is too large, I pass on the trade.


Where or when should stops be placed?


The "where and when" is when the picture no longer supports the trade. Examples of this can be a change in the trend of the chart you are trading or a break of a significant support, and so on. Just because the market pulls back more than I thought it would is not a reason to stop myself out. It's an opportunity to double down on my position, near to where I would stop myself out, giving me an almost free trade. 


The stop on the trade below was the significant low fractal. I would have wanted to see orderflow reverse there.

Trading a Tired Market

I woke up this morning to see everything sharply UNCH. We are lucky here in the foothills of one of the greatest ski areas in the world - usually no or low humidity. Yesterday was the first humid day for quite a while, so of course it had to be got rid of in the form of rain. It bucketed and now the sun is shining again.


But back to the unchanged markets. Unchanged overnight means that the markets are in balance. The last two days have been so active that everyone has tired out. I still need to make a quid, so what I do is drop down the size of my range bars or Renko and trade for smaller targets. I expect rotation for a while until something comes along to kick price to a new level, but until that happens I make hay while the sun shines. Typically on days like this I manually add trades to Flo's picks as Flo trades in a very structured manner. I could load a different algo into Flo - it's a simple 2 click step - for this type of market but as it's so quiet I like to have more to do.


Today I went to one of my favourites, the DAX. It's very volatile and moves 100 Euros in a blink. The 2 point DAX Renko is tailor made for this type of trading. I just find a short trend and trade the pullback and take profits quickly. It's all about the context and vision.


The first hour and a half gave 8 trades. It started slowly, but then started trending and I made my day very quickly. 

Tuesday's Child is Full of Grace

This Tuesday was anything but graceful. The London morning started with both the stock indices and the Euro going south. Not just south, but we were in sight of the South Pole.

Then enough was enough and the mythical Plunge Protection Team came in and brought us back to the European opening prices by the U.S. RTH after giving us a heap of good trades, both up and down. It was an exhausting morning as I was spoiled for choice. We've developed an additional OrderFlow filter for Flo to be even more selective in her trades. Even so, she found 27 DAX trades just in the morning with a 66% win rate and low drawdown. I was also trading the Bund, the Euro, and the ES. It was a great morning. Let's see how the afternoon goes.

Chief Programme Officer

I was really interested to see an advert for a Chief Programme Officer in the Appointments section of the Sunday Times yesterday. This is still a rare event, but this job role is becoming better known and I think reflects the changes in how project and programme management is seen within organisations now. In the last five years there has been a growing recognition that programmes and all the

Trading and All that Jazz

On Saturday night Mrs EL and I headed to the other side of the lake to the Montreux Jazz Festival. It's an annual event on Lake Leman in Switzerland every July and is not just jazz in the purest sense. This year there were names like Sting, Santana, and Chaka Khan to name just three. There's a whole lot of free music as well with lots of good street food too. The town is packed by the cognicienti from all over the world. Great night!

Formula One race on Sunday was more interesting than usual due to the rule changes - moving the goal posts - sprung on the teams. The rule changes did their job and gave Ferrari the win it was after. I'm far from being an Alonso fan, but it was a great drive. Pity it was achieved the way it was.

At 7am here in France I was expecting weak stock markets when I woke up, due to Sunday's bearish news about both India and Euroland, not to mention Laguarde's comments about the U.S. lawmakers' putzing around with the debt ceiling. The big down wasn't there - yet?? Is the game that the Republicans want a double dip so that the Democrats lose the 2012 elections?  Bad news, good action or was it just a delay?


It's now noon here in France and I had a great morning. Crude, Euro, DAX, all were weaker and tradable. Looks like reality is finally setting in. The answer to the question above was that it was delayed action.

The European afternoon went well too. Great stock index trading.

I'm not sure what chart to show today but I've chosen the Euro, as it was the "easiest" to trade. By easiest, I mean that the rhythm was good and the trend was consistent. I've added a Crude chart as I don't post those often enough.

Launchers and Impossible Lessons from history.

NASA and DOD have spent a lot of effort on creating costing models for aerospace development. By the standard costing model the Falcon 9/Dragon should have cost 4B+ to develop. Using the most optimistic costing model it should have cost 1.6B. The documented actual cost is 390M. All of the traditional aerospace companies would have told you that it was impossible. Accepted "Facts" can be wrong. Spacex now has a backlog of > 3B. It looks like Spacex will be a business success with investment returns in excess of 10x. Elon has proven to be a brilliant business man in multiple fields.

Spacex has assembled a group of really talented people, many of them with a history in the traditional aerospace environment. If you read the bios on the Spacex web site here. You will discover that many of the senior engineering people came from large aerospace organizations. They used their experience to build the best rocket they could. They had a clean sheet of paper and enough resources to do the job.They fixed most of the business problems in the traditional aerospace model, they embraced vertical integration and the rejected the traditional aerospace supply chain. Win, win, win.

Now I'm going to ask you to get into your time machine.
Go back to the late 1970's. Take a large budget and go hire the best and brightest computer engineers from IBM, DEC, Prime,HP etc... . Give them a clean sheet of paper and allow them to fix any problems they see in the traditional computer business. Turn them loose and volia you have a killer minicomputer. It outperforms the DEC VAX and cost 1/2 as much. Its better than the rest of the industry in every way...... Instead of costing 120,000 or so it only costs 60,000. The orders pile up and the traditional computer companies would be worried. Meanwhile a guy named Wozniak with no degree and no experience designing computers is building a computer to impress his friends at the homebrew computer club. The Apple I soon to be an Apple II, in every measurable technical way the Apple II was inferior to the minicomputers of the day, except one, price. If you had asked the engineers from DEC,IBM, Prime, HP etc... to design you a useful computer that could be sold for less than 3000 they would have laughed at you.

So the question I ask is it possible to be a Wozniak in the space access area?

If its possible, you aren't going to get their via SBIR, because the SBIR evaluators with their reality closely tied to traditional aerospace model will be laughing.

You won't be able to do it by selling parts to other aerospace companies, IE Mr Wozniak did not start by building low cost memory cards to sell to DEC, the whole concept of modular cards and back planes as implemented in big computer land cost more than the whole apple I. The whole concept of separate bolt together components going into a launcher will need to be changed. The size scope and scale of what you build will not be appropriate for traditional aerospace.

Traditional aerospace customers will laugh at you and ridicule you... until one of you ends up unemployed and looking like a fool.

Clearly the microcomputer revolution was enabled by Mores law and the physics of space flight will not have any such exponential favoring factor.

Wozniak did not build any custom silicon, he use commercial off the shelf parts in new ways. I believe that modern CNC, 3D manufacturing and automated composite construction can be leveraged in a similar way.


This concept of comparing aerospace, old minicomputers and the PC revolution is not an original idea of mine. Charles at http://www.microlaunchers.com/ has used this comparison for years.
Frankly I never really got it. I thought it was a bit too much of a stretch. For the last 4 years I've been reading, studying and brainstorming on really low cost launch concepts. I've also been a rabid Spacex fan following what they are doing and cheering their success. In my though experiments I keep coming up with differnt solution concepts than Spacex. The Spacex solutions keep looking like traditional aerospace, but with much better execution, why is that? Is the traditional super high tech method the only way to achieve space launch? Then it dawns on me that Elon/Spacex hired the wizards from DEC, IBM, HP etc.. to build a better computer. In that context it ALL makes perfect sense.

Getting It On

The most important part of trading is getting the trade on. To make sure this happens, I have a detailed trading plan (TP). My trading plan has evolved over time and is still evolving. I make tweaks to meet market evolution too, although the basic methodology stays the same - identify the trend and trade the thrust after the pullback.


However, there are two categories of this type of trade: the first trade after a change of trend (the trend of the chart I am trading) and the continuation trades after a too early exit from that trade. The risk on each type of trade is different and the recognition of knowing when I'm wrong is different too. Stops should not be a matter of price but a matter of what's happening in the context. If price has to move too far against me before I would know I am wrong, I pass the trade.


Lengthening the CCI can help identify the trend when there is more noise (chop) in the market. Sometimes I use 90, 135, 180 or more instead of the 45CCI. Trend identification is of prime importance.

Spread the love

Hi Everyone

It's been another exciting week with some huge tasks tackled. A new interactive poster has been launched to help spread the word to customers and allow them to sign up to the new customer email newsletter with their phones.

The posters are being put up in childcare centres, libraries & sporting centres around Melbourne. Help us spread the love by posting on your facebook, twitter and website. Email us if you would like to request a hi res file to print and put up in your local childcare centre.

We have also revised the floor plan to add in some extras like a changing and quiet feed room for customers, a gym for the design hub team and the party room. Head to The Layout to see the new plan.  

OK, drum roll please..... The on consignment percentage rate is now available! Most stores charge 40-50%, so we think ours will leave you pleasantly surprised. Read about it here.

The studio rental rate will be emailed to all those who have expressed interest in possibly renting a studio, over the next 2 days. Please note that most designers will find on consignment the most viable option but for those of you who have started thinking about having your own shop but it's still too risky and expensive, our studio hub is an affordable option.

Happy Designing

Nicole Herrick
Kids Style Hub

Big News Week

Lots of news this week, not the least of which is the ECB comments today after their announcement and also the U.S. monthly jobs report tomorrow, Friday.


News equals opportunity, but timing is everything. Sometimes there is chop before the announcements due to analysis paralysis and fear. Other times people front run a report only to be either disappointed or exiting on the fact after trading the expectation. Trying to work out what is actually happening is worthwhile as it will have an impact on the bottom line. My concept of envisioning the day helps this process.


Today there were a couple of good moves in the Euro in the morning and then after the ECB and ADP the markets ... well look at the pic.

Life business and rockets.

Life business and rockets.
I'm really proud of what Unreasonable rocket accomplished in pursuit of the LLC contest. I think we effectively showed the world that unreasonable people can accomplish. more than expected. At the same time the LLC and its end has been personally really hard. I've never worked that hard on a project in my life, I gave it everything I had, and got really close. Over and over my wife asked me if I was going to be ok if we failed. I always said yes I'd shown the world what could be done and I'd be ok. Keeping that promise has been a lot harder than I expected. Failing took a lot out of me.

The bright hard goal of a hard task to accomplish is very seductive.

So I failed at the LLC and this removes a nice bright hard goal, and replaces it with my business as CTO of NetBurner. 13 years ago my business partner Tom and I started Netburner. If I look back on the my career the times I've been most happy have been when I'm learning something new and accomplishing something really hard. Starting NetBurner and writing a robust embedded network ecosystem from scratch was all of these things, lots to learn, hard, a task worth putting 100% into. From a personal financial and business sense NetBurner has been a success, but at the same time from a personal technical challenge the code base is now mature and I spend at least 80% of my time messing with hardware and code that I created 5 or more years ago. From a personal sanity standpoint I need to do something different.

As I've stated here and elsewhere helping humanity reduce the cost of accessing all of the solar systems resources is probably the most important task that a human can attempt. I'd like to contribute to that effort. Clearly any effort in this direction has to be commercial, if it can't create value and a profitable business, it won't be self sustaining. How best to contribute to that?

I could go work for an existing organization, but I'm not sure how well the transition from leader/owner to employee would go.

I could liquidate all my assets and bet the farm on starting a NanoSat launcher business in an unreasonable fashion. Based on projections this would be grossly under capitalized and even if I acomplish this its not clear that having an organization where the value lives in the head of the one old wizard really creates value. ( At some level I've already a got a business that looks a lot like this )

I could write a business plan to create a larger organization where the value is in the organization and systems created and and go out on the begging for investors road trip. I've personally seen some very smart people fail at this. I've also seen some really creative people be consumed by the continuous process of finding the next funding round. Business schmooze is not my thing and unless the process can be setup with enough resources to succeed upfront I'm hesitant. Business have natural size scaling issues. Some where between 5M and 20M there is a discontinuity where things like HR and overall business management come into being and
trying to learn the 20M business organization game at the same time as trying to do a really hard technical problem seem personally daunting.

I could do some hybrid like working 1/2 time at NetBurner and liquidate some assets to build an all volunteer space business in San Diego (The Armadillo model) Unreasonable rocket has generated a lot of interest but the number of people that would show up once or twice a week on a regular basis for years seems to be vanishingly small.

I could say I'm done playing the rat race game, buy a Chris White Atlantic 48 and sail off into the sunset. (At one time this was a personal goal, my wife thinks I would be bored out of my mind.)

There are a million complicating issues:

The vast majority of the current U.S. space revenue comes from the government in one form or another. The U.S. government is broke and the recent NASA budget proposal is only the beginning. If the politicians get serious about getting the budget under control then all discretionary spending has to go to zero. NASA and non-military space is the poster child for discretionary. If the politicians don't get the the budget under control we are headed to a fiat monitary collapse or hyperinflation. In either case the current discretionary space funding goes to zero. One might even see this as an opportunity if could become the lowest cost launch provider by an order of mangnitude.

My son, who was a key part of the Unreasonable Rocket effort, is rightfully starting his own business and his own life. I doubt I will ever find someone that is as personally easy to work with. As my wife says don't play pictionary against thoose two they have some sort of personal telepathy.

I turn 49 in September, I have a lot of experience wisdom and gray hair, I can see that the brute force problem solving CPU is not what it was when I was 25. Can I find a way to harness the experience and hard earned wisdom without being the one primary CPU?

What is my personal responsibility to existing stakeholders in my life? Is it fair to sell the house and live with in an industrial space with my wife?. (She says she's fine with that, I'm not sure I am) What do I owe to the existing NetBurner stakeholders? A lot of independant consultants
base their lively hood on our eco system. I need to leave enough assets there to make sure NetBurner continues as a strong viable business while at the same time its my primary asset .


Lots to think about.

Popularity of business transformation

Continuing my theme, I was researching most popular project and programme management jobs currently being advertised in the market and the most common term amongst all the job adverts right now is business transformation. If you are looking for your next role, check your CV against the terms on my wordle diagram (the biggest words are the most popular), drawn from 50 job adverts posted this week

Flo Trades the Euro Today

Today's blog is a video review of the Euro future trades this morning in London time. We had a rally due to the Portuguese news and then a sell off. I'm working on showing a video of live hybrid trading as I have had email questions that I think I can answer best with a vid. The recording is not the problem, but cutting out the dead time and adding an audio commentary so I can upload a video to youtube of an acceptable length requires more time. I'll have to work out how I can do that with the time I have available. Anyway, here's today's vid.

Tuesday Morning Hybrid Trades

Below is the DAX chart showing the trades for the European morning.

You can see Flo's auto entries and I have annotated how I managed them. The power of entering a trade exactly the way I have written it in my trading plan cannot be overstated.

Managing those trades provides a lot of options. As you can see from the chart, I trade "within" the Flo trade. If I exit before Flo, I can manually re-enter the trade at a better price, as long as the trade picture supports it. My overall profitability can be multiples of what I otherwise would have made. Of course there are trades that don't work and you can see an example of one below. The benefit of hybrid is that I don't take a full stop on a trade as I stop myself out manually at a more advantageous price as soon as I see the trade is unlikely to work.

Day Off Except For The Roofers

Happy 4th of July to America.

Happy Fourth of July America

Not much happened today. Just bread and butter trading. Ranges were small ahead of the 4th of July week-end. There were a couple of European numbers that gave a small pop and one U.S. number that came out after I had stopped for the day.

The weather is great here and I have guys restoring the roof on one of the small buildings here. Next year we do stage two and convert it into a guest house. There's also another building on the property that will be restored giving us even more living space.

As for me, I'm spending the rest of the day watching the men's semifinals of the tennis at Wimbledon, on TV.

Business Transformation

I went to a meeting of the Change Management Institute on Tuesday night which included a presentation from Simon Moran, the Head of Process and Change at London Underground. imon described how over the last 6 years he had been building an internal capability for managing and effectively implementing change. Simon and his team support change initiatives by helping staff understand how people react