Kamis, 31 Maret 2011

Energizer Bunny

Looks like it's only the Energizer Bunny that keeps going and going. I'm still struggling to get better, but in the mean time, Flo is saving my bacon. The robustness of Flo is critical. During my enforced downtime, I've been surfing the web to look at what's new in auto trading. There seems to be a lot of robots being offered with what can only be curve fitted inputs. I'm seeing people saying that as soon as they go live, the robot starts losing.

The process of creating a robust and profitable algo is a lot more complex than at first meets the eye. It's not until you have failed that you can even know the questions to ask, not just the answers. It's a whole different thing. Being CP is, I think, a prerequisite to creating a successful algo, as without the real world experience it's like doing brain surgery as a computer game.

My focus in creating Flo has always been to make her logic both timeframe and market agnostic. It had to be based on the way I trade, as I know it works and won't fall apart. The wild card in any algo is the variation in volatility which impacts both stops and targets. Flo had to be profitable in spite of these variables. I advocate Hybrid Trading to take the win rate and profitability to a level that makes it possible to build on the pluses of an algo with discretionary trading.

To become a CP discretionary trader, the same testing is needed as is needed to create an algo. All the comments for algos apply equally to discretionary trading. The added value is created when you put the two together in the form of what I call Hybrid Trading.

The Euro was trading the same as it has thee last few days. It allowed an Outside in trade with very low risk: Trade #5. Order flow ran out of puff and the short rally was over and gave the opportunity.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar