I had a comment in the EL Trader Training blog that really belongs here. I've reproduced it in full except for a couple of lines where the OP is giving some incorrect legal advice.
There are a number of points raised that I would like to answer as answering them gives readers some good information. The OP's comments are italicised and mine are in red.
EL, I've read your description of the mathematics on which trading lies. Seventy percent seems to be an awfully high standard can you demonstrate that you have the ability to achieve this?
Yes I can. A large percentage of the attendees at the marathon training are now hitting the 70% to 80% win rate AND are profitable (some in SIM and some live). Also, the DVDs of the training show me trading live while I am passing on the techniques to trade the pictures I trade.
If you didn't have the occasional runner would you be successful?
My methodology has a high win rate and profitability even without having a runner. Not all traders scale out. Some are all in, all out.
What is something unexpected happens? Even exchanges go down upon occasion. Do you have a plan; e.g. hedging with options, etc?
Every trader should have a drop dead stop and targets in the market immediately after the position is put on. In fact, most broker front ends are designed to do this.
I simple see a risk:reward ration that doesn't allow for much error, where the left side is higher than the right (1:2) rather than a more comfortable (2 or better):1.
After stage 1 which is a break even stage, traders learn how to optimise their exits. The 70% plus win rate is critical to high profitability. It's clearly shown in the DVDs.
I've seen very few who can demonstrate that they earn a living by trading (please follow with the usual excuses,thank you). Gary Smith published his statement. I've seen traders exposed as phonies, frauds, and occasionally thieves, and talked with brokers who've held accounts for other "big time" traders.
Yes, it's said that 90% of traders lose. Yes, there are phonies in every sphere of activity. I'd be surprised if brokers spoke to you or to anyone about any clients' profitability, especially high profile ones.
I do not think that your method can be proved statistically over time especially if you are trading with an account where your risk exceeds %1;
It has been proven statistically by computer back testing to be both profitable and have a high win rate. Also, students are proving the same thing every week with their own testing and trading.
about $40k for ES (3 lots). Your adjustable stops are a convenient tool for fuzzy logic logic and bad trading when your edge is a razor's edge. When you bail early and dodge the bullet, and when you let it ride, become arbitrary and lead to losing trading. Sorry, but I make the rounds once in a while and I use MP so I see your blog mentioned. The reason I take the time to write is legitimate I think: I really would like to see if you could be profitable. It helps me think about your method and decide again that I doubt it's for me. Also, How many students jumped on board? Do they know the details of brokerages and exchanges and how stops are held? Do they have other accounts and escape from catastrophe plans? Do they realize that they will have no legal recourse with a broker or exchange because only God has enough attorney to seek legal council for said purpose?
Shepton, I feel your pain. Having individual failures as a trader is the usual. You are part of the 90% but if you develop the skills, discipline and the right mental attitude, put in the hours and hours of hard work, things can change. It requires a structured and systematic approach to the learning. Using building blocks to build a strong financial and mental structure.
And your student, do they have and extra $25k or so to lose as they learn. Sorry, I don't have the citation but I believe the average successful trader spends in the area of $100k before reaching profitability?
My students are taught to perfect their trade in SIM. By the time they have progressed through the 7 or so Trading Plans, they are experienced and Consistently Profitable in SIM. All that is then required is to take the next step to Live. Traders do not risk ONE CENT before they KNOW that they can trade profitably. This is the beauty of SIM. It's not perfect but it's obvious to a trader that he can trade profitably. After SIM, it's easier to only have to resolve that issue of going LIVE than to try and resolve trading issues which we resolve in SIM.
................ I think there was a second daughter coming into the scene? That's where I thought this is a little um, too neat. The training program was to be short and sweet, not a career? New training website? Hope I'm wrong. ** This is strictly meant as a "buyer beware" message " -- part opinion but without accusation of wrong doing by me -- As with trading the consumer of any like service should be fully aware of the arrangement into which they enter. Seek advice. Visit http;//cftc.gov/ as a matter of routine.*** I suppose you won't post this message but I may look for some posting of students elsewhere to see what they have to say.
Why are you so angry about me teaching. If there were no teachers then people would find it hard to gain knowledge. I have 4 grown kids. I love them all and help as much as is needed. When C. told me she wanted to go into the trader education business after she had helped me getting my marathon training going, I had to say "yes". That's what Dads do. Besides, I found that I really liked to teach and felt I was making a difference. I am looking forward to teaching a short class 3 or 4 times a year. Additionally as cliche as it sounds, it also keeps my own trading sharp.
I realize that you sell the perfect method and people would still lose money. We aren't in general good as seeing our own faults. - Shepton
Shepton, don't ever under-estimate the amount of time and effort that is required to become a consistently profitable trader. The competition out in the market is huge. You are trading against banks, quants, computers and lots of smart people. As I often quote: " the harder I work, the luckier I get". As a final analogy, I'll end this blog entry with this story. One of my nieces just graduated from a Big 10 college in the U.S. She had to attend summer school to take one final class that she couldn't seem to get her head around for the fourth time. It took her that many goes to "get it". Her mother paid four times for her to do that same course. Without her hard work and determination she would not have finally succeeded. This the least that is required to become a consistently profitable trader.
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