Jumat, 07 Mei 2010

The Jackson Pollock Effect

Boy, was the heading to the day before yesterday's post an understatement. Yesterday we had over 3 million contracts traded in each of the ES and the EuroStoxx50. A large part of that was clearly due to HFT (high frequency trading), the buzz word of our day, that went a little awry . When the shazbat, as Mork used to say, hit the fan just after 2.30pm NY time, the Bots went to war and for a few minutes the charts looked like a mad painter had throw red and green paint against the canvas. The Jackson Pollock effect. One seeming mistake kicked it off and then the computers pin-balled and did exactly what their algorithms told them to but in an abnormal context. The huge flicks in price were reactions against each other and painted a surreal canvas on my screen.

I had gone to vote. In Oz, voting is compulsory which I believe is a good thing as any election is the result of the whole eligible population. Yesterday I made sure to exercise my vote as I couldn't stand the mess the UK is in and thought I would do my part to try and avoid a hung parliament. So I had finished work before the madness.

Today was a very good trading day as you may have expected. I've changed the background colour back to black.

I have also gone back to marking the actual triggered trades rather than the setups. Additionally, I'm now showing both inside out and outside in trades.

Kiki has graduated to trading all the setups she can find. Her size is still small and I will recommend it stays that way until at least October. By then she will not have just perfected her skills having experienced markets of most types but will have also achieved the very needed mental attitudes. In any case she is earning more than the average wage so there is no pressure on her to move faster.

As you can see, I exit and re-enter on days like this when there is a lot of two way rotation - I'm in scalp mode. I hate giving a profit back so I take the profit and re-enter on the pullback. You may want to trade the swing to it's end rather than break the trade into a number of trades like I have today. There are good arguments for both methods. There were 14 trades in the EuroStoxx50 before lunch with quite a nice range. I broke yesterday's Profile into it's distributions and used the S and R that was revealed. The VB and the inside the bar stuff of MD confirmed the trades when the momentum change occurred at the S and R areas.



I switched to the ES just before RTH trading began. The first couple of minutes were strange with people rushing to close out errors which resulted in volatile sideways action. Then into scalping mode again for the first hour where 7 trades were triggered. I tended to exit too early due to the volatility but was lucky a couple of times when the market moved too fast in my direction and I didn't have time to bail too quickly. 


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