Rabu, 14 April 2010

The Computers are Smokin'

It was great that there was so much interest in auto trading and Flo. It looks like there are some of you, like bakrob99 who are already going down that road. By the way, bakrob99, are you fully auto or just to enter and then manage?

A couple of you commented about slippage and not getting orders filled. I have said that using limit orders I have taken care of slippage but where we are vulnerable is when the range bars don't overlap and we miss the trade. This will have an impact on profitability, as we catch all the losers but miss some winners. Our experience so far running live in demo mode is that we make about 66% of the theoretical profits. I know this as we are running the same logic over eSignal data and live broker SIM. Any of you care to share your experience?

This project has a number of challenges.
  1. Getting historical data that is accurate. I am part of a private group that enabled me to get good data with volume attached in MultiCharts format. I can't provide data under my agreement with them.
  2. Ending up with statistics that show every month profitable over at least a 12 month period. This comes about by selecting the right range bar, stops and targets. There is no change in logic for the different markets.
  3. Achieving a reasonable maximum draw down. This is an important metric as it reveals whether there is a period when the model is losing money. When you eyeball the charts you get a handle on why the losses occurred.
Once we have Flo working in real time with real money, I'll provide a way for people to see it in action live. I'll also then start on the other markets we want to automate. So, as a portfolio, we 'll trade futures for Euro FX, Bund, ES, Dow Euro 50, mini Light Crude as a start.

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