I'm writing more on this subject as I am getting mails and comments saying that it's helpful.
If you get the context right, you can get the timing wrong and still make money.
A good example is yesterday's comment about why I didn't take the trade a few bars before the Trade 3. I said that if you had taken the trade it would not have really mattered as you would not have been stopped out.
This is true of many setups. It takes a lot of experience to make "perfect" judgments in the heat of battle when you don't have a lot of time to make that decision. So what do you do until you get enough experience? Well, you use range bars to slow the action down. In addition to revealing vertical development, range bars also get rid of the horizontal development which is what I want. In doing that, it gives me more time to make a decision. Also, it makes timing more forgiving if the Context or as Rino so eloquently puts it in a comment ( the interrelated conditions in which something exists or occurs) is right.
The big caveat for all of this - just getting the trade on and managing it. Using whatever methodology you use, that you have back-tested, to prove that it is profitable and that it's other stats not only meet your requirements, but that you are immediately aware of the possible and probable maths of your methodology.
For about 30 years I have been using a computer to test my ideas. During that time the technology has moved ahead dramatically and the costs are lower. I take advantage of that and back test and forward walk everything I can. Sometimes I need to use the computer as well as eyeballing as I cannot program some of the context and nuances I use. But if the setup works well enough without the nuances, I know that it will work better in real time as I will manage and filter the trades within the context I am trading in.
The ES is in paralysis waiting for Godot (= the Fed).
This is true of many setups. It takes a lot of experience to make "perfect" judgments in the heat of battle when you don't have a lot of time to make that decision. So what do you do until you get enough experience? Well, you use range bars to slow the action down. In addition to revealing vertical development, range bars also get rid of the horizontal development which is what I want. In doing that, it gives me more time to make a decision. Also, it makes timing more forgiving if the Context or as Rino so eloquently puts it in a comment ( the interrelated conditions in which something exists or occurs) is right.
The big caveat for all of this - just getting the trade on and managing it. Using whatever methodology you use, that you have back-tested, to prove that it is profitable and that it's other stats not only meet your requirements, but that you are immediately aware of the possible and probable maths of your methodology.
For about 30 years I have been using a computer to test my ideas. During that time the technology has moved ahead dramatically and the costs are lower. I take advantage of that and back test and forward walk everything I can. Sometimes I need to use the computer as well as eyeballing as I cannot program some of the context and nuances I use. But if the setup works well enough without the nuances, I know that it will work better in real time as I will manage and filter the trades within the context I am trading in.
The ES is in paralysis waiting for Godot (= the Fed).
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