Rabu, 30 November 2011

Create a Branding Website not a Resume for Your Business

It is accepted that every business must have at least a one page website to compete in today's market but the critical question is - what is your one website or many page website saying?  In seconds, a prospective customer can see everything they need to know about whether or not to do business with you.

What is written and how it is written on your website sends a subtle message about you and how knowledgeable and serious you are about your business and your services and products. Too many websites are written like a resume for the business rather than a problem solving option for the customer.  The website is all about the business and not about the customer and his needs.  Meeting the clients' needs should be the most important point.  Customers really don't care how long you have been in business as long as you can perform. Keep the resume and list of services for the 'About Us' page.
A brand is the entire experience a prospect or customer has with your company.  From websites to how the receptionist answers the phone,  For our purpose here we will discuss the website. So how do I create a brand, you ask? Step one, identify the problems or issues that your products or services solve - then focus on the top three. What is your message? To simplify the process - pose a descriptive question that creates emotion or allows the customer to relate?  An example would be "Are you tired of high heating bills?" Who isn't tired of this but the client is prompted to read further for information which may help him with a solution. Offer the solution and position yourself and your business site as the "go to" place for answers.  This is the start to building your brand and who you are.
The next blog will discuss the importance of the images conveyed and how colors and design play a role in your brand. 
Visit us at www.Qlixite.com for hints and help in creating your brand.

All Change?

There is some evidence that the world is finally paying attention to what is happening in the financial markets. The concerted action by the world's central banks is a major indication to me that it is intending to hold the line somewhere here.


We are far from being out of the woods as far as growth is concerned until the jobs situation is properly addressed, but I feel better that the financial system will be better cared for. What I want to see is some more steps to solve the sovereign debt situation so that the problem not just the symptoms are addressed.


The chart today is the ES 3 tick Renko with wicks. MarketDelta can put wicks on Renkos which is great.



Selasa, 29 November 2011

Scaling

I had a question to Friday's post. A guy wanted to know which of the recommended books on money management dealt with scaling in. I answered and then thought that the subject needed more information, so I'm posting on it.


Firstly, I don't scale in. At all. Apart from the fact that I am more short term, I don't want to worsen my trade location with a worse average price, larger stop loss and lower profit per contract.


The closest I come to scaling in is by "reloading". By this I mean that as I am scaling out and there is a proper re-entry picture, I'll take my position back to full if I had scaled out some. But the picture has to be as strong as entering a new position. I don't scale in because the market has gone my way. The math just doesn't work for me.


My initial entry will have a size - 25%, 50% 100% depending on the risk - how much it will cost for me to know I'm wrong. Keeping the risk per trade the same is important for me.


I've been playing with trying to put some sense in an algo that runs on Renko charts. A real challenge as Renkos have an invisible wick that hides possible stop hits and targets. So here's the Euro on a Renko chart with wicks so I can better analyse what is happening historically.



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Senin, 28 November 2011

Sold?

On the floor, the first reaction to a market pop like today was to sell it! But look at the title of this post. It has a question mark.


The question mark is because the markets have changed. The players have changed. The way they trade has changed. Markets feed on themselves more. It's more like pin ball game, as one set of big orders begets another set of big orders. In the "olden days", the locals and market makers (specialists) would pounce on the market and give it a lot of supply, satisfying the orders. No one group was that big that this strategy didn't work most of the time. On the floor, your friend the broker might give his local friend the nod to sell the last tranch of buying.


Not any more. The locals are gone. The specialists are gone. Markets are "managed" by pure order flow from HFTs, from hedge funds and other very big groups, often having to trade in the same direction for very short periods of time. So Newton's Law rules. A body continues until it is acted upon by an impressed force.


Where the market goes longer term is much harder to "predict". It's all money management and scalping. Everyone is a day trader.


Euro had a few nice trades today. The chart shows a final pop to the morning and then the negative order flow kept me out of trouble.





Sabtu, 26 November 2011

Live and kicking...

Hi Everyone


I am so excited to announce that our webshop is finally live!!! I am so proud of all of our designers and photographers on board for producing such an amazing range of products and services. After many, many weeks of staring at my computer screen, i looked at my screen with fresh eyes this morning and was amazed that i was actually able to achieve this. It is better than i ever could have imagined and you have all helped me get there. Yes even you the customers! Without your input for my research, none of this would be the same. I take great pride in what we have all achieved together. 


 http://www.kidsstylehub.com.au/

The retail store has been going extremely well and we have now been open for 6 weeks! It actually feels like i've been here for years though. I love coming in every morning, turning on the computers and all the lights, checking the displays and making myself a nice strong coffee before opening the door and welcoming in a new day. 


Our new picnic room has started taking off too. Kids are just loving somewhere to play and meet new friends and parents are sinking back into the deck chairs with a cup of tea, or catching up with other mums and exchanging war stories. With all this rainy weather is has been a perfect park alternative and even on the hots days when it's too hot to sit outside, the air conditioning and breeze from the courtyard makes things nice and relaxing. Help us spread the word about The Picnic Room by sharing this around. You can also hire this space for parties with full catering and styling options available. 
Of course we are still on the hunt for a new cafe tenant so if anyone out there has ever dreamed of running there own kid friednly cafe but been too scared to do it alone, come in for a chat. 


Our new events schedule was kicked off on Friday with Christmas Crafting which was hosted by one of our lovely designers, Julie from Moops and Hoops. The kids had a lot of fun and really enjoyed meeting some new friends. 
Lots more events are coming up including: Silly sea creatures, storyime and singalong, mosaic decoration, cloth nappy demonstrations and a very special workshop by Sonja Viduka, Author or I Love Being Me children's affirmation books which will be held on Friday Dec 9th at 10:30am. The workshop is all about helping your kids learn to focus on the great things about themselves, their special talents, and how loved they are. Ticket are just $20 and include a copy of Sonja's book which normally retails for $24.95. Email nicoleh@kidsstyehub.com.au to book your ticket now. Head to our facebook events page to read more about what's on and when. 


The photo studio upstairs is now open and available for anyone to book. Even if you're a beginner and know nothing about studio photography, we can set the lights to the right setting for you, show you some simple adjustments and even help you find the right settings on your camera. Don't have a camera? You can hire ours, we'll show you how to use it. 


Studio hire rates: 
A simple white backdrop is also available. 

  • 2 hours $80
  • 4 hours $150
  • Full day $200 (up to 12 hours)
  • Camera hire $50 per session
OK it's Sunday afternoon 5:05pm an i'm logging off to go relax. ahhhhhhhhhh, so glad the webshop is now up and running, spread the word everyone!!!

Warm regards

Nicole Herrick

KIDS STYLE HUB

Jumat, 25 November 2011

Money Management

I was re-reading a couple of my books on money management. There are three that I could suggest as a starting point:
The Ryan Jones book, one of the Ralph Vince books, and, of course, Vam Tharp's books.


Many of the above are available on Kindle and would make a worthwhile week-end read.


Good money management improves how much you make with your trading system/methodology. It's as simple as that. It's all about position sizing. When to increase and when to decrease. In any one day, the risk per trade for me is the same, whether I'm trading a 25% position or a 100% position. However, how you manage your trading size as your account size grows will have a huge impact on your annual profitability. Naturally, that assumes CP.


One take away from Ryan Jones' book is that people start to use money management too late. They often want to get some profits under their belt before they implement a money management strategy. Jones says "do it now". A proper money management strategy makes such a difference that even a 3 month delay will cost.


No trades for me today. Back to charts on Monday.


Good Weekend.

Kamis, 24 November 2011

Happy Turkey Day

Day off for me. Tough Thanksgiving this year for many throughout the world. I'm thankful.


Rabu, 23 November 2011

Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan

My vision for the day was a down day and that worked at first after the Eurex opened. Then the major support on the DAX held and the market looked like it would bounce.

The trend changing is visible on the left side of the chart. EMAs were converging. Price broke through them both and I saw that we would rally. How far, I didn't know. The pullback to the EMAs did not hold so I couldn't find an entry there. I then got a higher low and a penetration of the EMAs again. This is where I should have gone long but missed it. I then looked for another entry point so created the Fav Fib lines. Price bounced down from them but I still didn't see an entry. Then there was the next pullback with the price rejecting the lows, CumVolDelta nice and strong. The Fib had held twice but would break on the 3rd try. it did. Price ran all the way to the next Fav Fib where I went short, having scaled a few times on the way up and reloaded as I went. The short was covered at the EMA and I was ready to start again.

The trade worked because I thought it out. My initial vision was short lived but the market clearly showed what was going on. Order flow was clear.  Plan the Trade and Trade the Plan.



Senin, 21 November 2011

Kenny Rogers Said It

"You gotta know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em". Like poker, how you go about exiting the trade is one of the secrets of CP and survival.


There are 3 possibilities: You exit at a profit, you exit at break even and you exit at a loss. Of course we all want every trade to go in our favour immediately when we enter it. That is our aim when we enter and see the order flow in the direction of our trade.


However, for that not to happen, all that is required is that more contracts come in to sell than there are on the bid, and the market ticks down. We use range bars in order not to be shaken out of the tree by normal fluctuations but we can increase the odds of the trade going into our favour by our trade location.


If I'm buying, I want to buy at support. What is support? Support is the area (not necessarily an exact price) where buyers have shown their hand and where we expect the buyer to be still waiting to buy. We monitor for the continuing activity of the buyer at that area. We want the buyer to remain unsatisfied and for the buyer and other buyers to auction up the market. We virtually front run the buyer and lean on his bid. If he disappears or is satisfied by sellers, then the price moves down to the next support. Where that support is, is what determines whether we exit the trade or weather the storm or even double down.


As far as exiting at a profit, we look for resistance. How strong a resistance we look for depends upon our trading style and whether we are happy to sit on a profitable trade as the market rotates in the direction of our trade.


Knowing where we want to exit when we enter the trade is an important part of the process, as we are making a determination based upon calculating the amount of possible loss versus our expected profit, taking into account our known win rate on that particular trading picture.


This is what it takes to make money consistently. The ability to make that judgement/calculation in a split second and act on it before the trade is missed. If you haven't done your homework to give you the ability to make the assessment then I don't think you are in the race, never mind winning it.


I had nice trades this morning (London time). You can see them on the chart below. The first, a buy, was my usual pullback trade that I entered as it bounced off the 33 EMA. My target was the thick red line I drew on my chart yesterday, just before RTH started. I had seen activity here and I marked the chart so I could sell yesterday if price came back up there. It didn't and I left the line there to remind me to expect selling today.


As price got there this morning, I initially had orders to exit at the line. When it got near, I could see that momentum was running out and moved my SELL order to take profits plus added a new SELLSHORT order a little below the line. I was happily filled on both. I covered some at 5657ish and the balance at the 99 EMA. The trade made about 62 points per contract or 1,550 Euros, all because I had done my homework. "The harder I work, the luckier I get!"


And then I bought it again.



I Just Love The Opens

The open of a market is a great opportunity if you have structure built into your methodology. The centre of my universe is the 33 EMA and it represents the fair price at any one point in time. It acts like a support and resistance.


The overnight ES had established lower value by the time that Eurex was ready to open. I had the VAL of Friday on my mind before the DAX open. The market opened gap down and I was looking at that VAL and the 33 EMA. Surprise, surprise, the two coincided. The Renko chart shows the action very nicely. I sold every pullback and was finished for the morning after a couple of hours. It doesn't get much easier than this.


Jumat, 18 November 2011

Google Apps highlights – 11/18/2011

Cross-posted from the Official Google Blog

This is part of a regular series of Google Apps updates that we post every couple of weeks. Look for the label “Google Apps highlights" and subscribe to the series. - Ed.


The last few weeks have brought a fresh new look in Gmail, more mobile access options and simpler meeting scheduling tools. Millions of organizations using Google Apps can now use Google+ on their business and university accounts, and we launched a couple Apps-related Google+ Pages ourselves.

Gmail’s new look
Back in July we previewed Gmail’s new look, and a couple weeks ago we started letting people switch to the new design with one click. The refreshed interface makes it easier to follow conversations and spot the sender with profile pictures for each message. The new look also supports dynamic screen densities, so Gmail displays properly whether you’re viewing on a large desktop monitor or a smaller mobile screen. We also added a selection of beautiful HD themes to the existing gallery. Finally, we made it easier to perform advanced email searches using a panel of powerful search options that reveals with a single click.



Gmail app for iOS devices
This month we introduced the Gmail app for the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, complete with mobile alerts for new mail, a responsive touch screen interface and Gmail mainstays like fast search, conversation view and address auto-complete.




Suggested meeting times in Google Calendar
We’ve heard how frustrating it can be to spend 15 minutes finding a good time for people to convene for a 30 minute meeting, so we made it easier to find a good meeting time in Google Calendar. The suggested times feature automatically reviews the availability of meeting invitees, and proposes event times that work for the whole group.




Google+ for organizations using Google Apps
Businesses, schools and organizations with Google Apps can now use Google+. Employees and students can create profiles, +1 things they like on the web, share interesting content with their circles and have live multi-person video chats with classmates, colleagues and friends. Organizations can also create their Google+ Pages—an organization’s identity on Google+ for customers, students or fans. We’re using Google+ Pages ourselves, so take a look at the Gmail and Google Enterprise pages, and circle us if you’d like to stay in the loop.

24x7 telephone support and improved mobile device management
This week, we introduced a couple other new benefits for Google Apps customers. Organizations of all sizes around the world can now call our support hotline at any time for all core service issue. Also new this week, we improved our mobile device management capabilities with an interface for administrators to view and deny mobile devices connecting to Google Apps, granular mobile policy controls, and the ability to visualize mobile usage trends across the organization.




Who’s gone Google?
Organizations large and small continue to amass around Google Apps. We’re thrilled to welcome a whole host of new customers including the Trinity Mirror Group (Britain’s largest newspaper publisher), startups such as JobFlo and UserTesting, organizations including the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, and colleges like the University of Michigan and UT Austin. Welcome to all!

Kamis, 17 November 2011

Equity Curves Matter

Everything in life is a trade off! If I want the most delicious food and eat it all the time, I know I'll get fatter. If I drive fast, I risk a speeding ticket. If I want a low draw down, I'll make less money. If I keep my stops tight, I'll get stopped out of potentially winning trades. And the list is endless.


Eyeballing the equity curve of a simulation may be a quick way of paging through a large number of simulations. It shows a lot.


But here comes the rub. Any single equity curve or simulation represents the position of only that combination of the unfolding of the number of wins and losses in a row. I can have a nice algo with a 70% win rate and have the losers grouped in such a way that the draw down is extremely painful.


Looking at what is possible and what is probable and where to draw the line between the two is necessary in order to set expectations of an algo's future performance (Disclaimers apply). Setting a stop loss for an algo is like setting a stop loss for a single trade. Knowing your drop dead stop is important in both. The charts below show a number of equity curve charts of a number of winning trading systems for the same symbol. Which one is "best" is quite a subjective judgement. Having firm requirements in your trading plan helps me make a better choice.


The charts below have a white and a green section. The GREEN is the out of sample performance.



The interesting feature on these equity curves is the drawdown that occurs a little way into the OOS (Out Of Sample). The issue for algos is like anything in trading: discipline. Would you keep on trading an algo if it goes into a drawdown a short time after it goes live? If the answer is "NO" and you had done the proper work to create the algo - backtesting and walking forward - and you don't believe that you could sit through the drawdown then fully auto trading may not be for you. However, Hybrid trading is a different thing. More as this series of posts talking about algos for fully automated trading continues.

The markets were quiet in the London morning. Volume was lower too. The trades paid, but not a lot. I guess I've been spoilt.












Grand Old Duke of York

There is a children's nursery rhyme called the Grand Old Duke of York that comes to mind when looking at the stock indices price action over the last few months, both inter day and intra day. The lines from the rhyme I'm referring to are:
Oh, The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men;
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.

And when they were up, they were up,
And when they were down, they were down,
And when they were only half-way up,
They were neither up nor down.

If you grew up in the U.K. or Australia you probably remember the rhyme. Our markets have been marching to the instructions of the Grand Old Duke of York. There seems no real reason for the volatility except perhaps fear, greed (the usual two suspects) and the need for many funds not to miss the boat. And, of course, the algos.

I'm seeing this after I wake up at 4 am London time as the days unfold, as well as from day to day as the market digests news and rumours. It's important to only trade the trend of the chart you are trading from, not any ideas of what you may think is happening as your inspiration is probably not in synch with the trading chart. Having no outside bias is important, although a vision about the way the market might unfold for the next few hours can be useful.

The effect of the intra day volatility is "opportunity". This can be seen if you untoggle a Market Profile for any day and watch the rotations of the TPOs. A goal of earning the day's range in points, while quite ambitious, is doable. So if someone's ambition is to take only a few points out of all that rotation, making a plan to do just that and achieving it must be even more doable. The way to achieve a goal is to set one and then design your trading campaign to hit it.

The chart below shows two trades. The first one is at 8.34 am NY time and the second is at 8.41 am. Both lasted only minutes and each made the 1.5 ES points target of the TP. Someone not yet trading full time can find trades like this outside RTH, make the trades and then go to their regular job. $300 with 2 contracts. A great way to get to CP.



Rabu, 16 November 2011

Renko Trades and MFG

I've been following the MFGlobal saga, as have most traders . I'm sure that we have not seen the whole story yet. The sad thing is to see the shabby way that the futures customers are being treated with the funds still being held by the liquidator. The issue of segregated funds has always been a touchy one with me. I have always feared a trader taking a broker down, with me being in the same segregated bucket as he was. 


I never imagined that the auditing of the segregated account was so non existent, as it obviously must have been if funds are missing. Daily accounting for each trader's funds should be mandatory with independent exchange auditors making daily spot checks. Nothing will prevent every breach but a strong audit framework will surely make people think a lot more if the risk of getting caught is higher. We pay all sorts of regulatory fees that are included in the round trip costs of trading and it looks to me that we are not getting what we have paid for.

On a different note-



One of the guys in the Workshop loves Renko charts to trade from. I trade them from time to time and have also worked algos on them.


Renkos are a different challenge for an algo, as there are no wicks and the high and low of a Renko chart are not the real high and low of the bar. That means that in real time or SIM, you could have been stopped out of a trade but not stopped out when you run your back testing.


Also, they can be more pessimistic, in that your target could have been met in live or SIM but not met in back testing as the wicks remain out of the algos calculation.


Renko back testing needs a lot of manual intervention and eyeballing to try and get it to be more realistic. It's a very subjective process and not too scientific.


Nonetheless, I like trading Renkos as the charts are so clean. I was trading the DAX this morning and here are some of the trades. The first trade was leaning against the low buying tail or candlestick low rejection of yesterday. Notice how well the MomDots help trade management.




Senin, 14 November 2011

Timing and Stops

Trading is about timing. When I put a trade on I am trying to catch that optimum point where I can be "sure" that the market will immediately go in the direction of my trade.


That's a really big ask! If that was my expectation (and it is NOT) then I would be expecting to divine future market direction and the exact moment when the price would move in that direction on a basis that it would depart from my entry and continue towards my target without coming back through my entry price. As I said, a big ask.


I think of trading like driving a really powerful sports car on ice with summer tyres. Lots of wheel spins and slides before I get traction to go in the direction I want to go. In the mean time, I don't want to hit anything that wipes me out and stops me from getting to my destination. But I do want fences around me to stop me from going over the edge of the cliff.


But where to put the fences? Without fences, blowing out an account is in sight. Fences too close and the fences are the cause of the crash.


My solution is to stay in a trade until I know it's wrong. OK, what does that mean? Well, if I'm taking a trade with the trend, I'll stay in the trade until the trend changes. If I'm trading against the trend - Outside In - I'll stay in the trend until I get a pullback against the trend and I see that the trend is resuming. I wrap all that in a drop dead stop, so I don't make a career decision on one trade.


The Euro futures trades this morning were all in the direction of the trend. Down! At no point during those trades - see the screenshot - did the trend look like it was over. I didn't cut any of them at a loss. Should I have? Do you? Taking unnecessary losses is one of the causes of not succeeding, both discretionary and algo. Like the guy on the island said: It's the Plan, it's the plan.



Paralyzed by options

For the last two months I've been working on improving my physical self. Next year I turn 50 and its clear that some attention to self maintenance is no longer optional. I've been running, carefully controlling what I eat looking at things like nutrient levels unrealized food allergies etc... So far I've lost 25 lbs, I am sleeping better, fixed some weird digestive issues etc... I'm starting to feel a whole lot better. For the next few months this is going to remain my primary focus, but I'm starting to have some spare brain cycles to devote to interesting projects. The only problem is I have not yet picked one. Its almost an embarrassment of riches as I have far more things I'd like to work on than I could ever possibly do.

Here is the list of what I've spent some time on in the last three months:

  • Exploring the possibility of starting a Nanosat/Microsat launcher business.
  • Exploring the NASA NanoSat challenge.
  • Working on developing peroxide compatible high performance tank age.
  • Training my self to run, I'm up to running 5K, long term goal is to finish a 1/2 Ironman, the swim and bike are much easier for me that the run part.
  • Learning to be a better RC helicopter pilot.
  • Updating the Helicopter autopilot to clean up code and use more modern lower cost sensors.
  • Helping my Son move to Seattle and getting adjusted to the "Empty Nest"
  • Testing GPS units under high acceleration.
  • Cleaning organizing my Shop in anticipation of getting back to a rocket project.
  • Repairing my little catamaran and doing some delayed maintenance on the boat.
  • Going to the shooting range and relearning to shoot well. This was the primary Father son activity with my Dad from age 8 to 16. Sad to say that I took my Dad to the range and he is too far gone down the dementia path to enjoy that, it was loud and confusing and he realized he was not shooting well, but could not put the cognitive skills together to figure out what he was doing wrong, one of the Sadest things I've done in a long long time.
Here is the short stream of consciousness list of projects I'd like to do, and that I've spent some time sketching or thinking about.
  • Develop a tiny low cost guidance and control package for HPR class rockets.
  • Develop a truly low cost (<5K) hovering controlled rocket vehicle for use by students, schools, serious amateurs etc...
  • Develop an autonomous aerobatic RC helicopter.
  • *Develop a integrated RC transmitter and Telemetry receiver display for UAV and controlled rocket use.
  • *Develop a gas and go 100Kft reusable liquid rocket. (Glide back, guided parachute, or VTVL TBD)
  • *Develop a high G integrated GPS and IMU system.
  • *Break the VTVL hovering duration record.
  • Build something like the Martin Jetpack.
  • Build a Solar powered aircraft. (My last attempt is here:http://www.rasdoc.com/splinter/solar2004.htm)
  • Build a manned solar powered aircraft.
  • Get my FAA medical back and start flying again. (13 months ago I started using CPAP, so without a lot of paperwork and hassle that pretty much kills my medical.)
  • *Develop a peroxide rocket that uses thermal decomposition rather than catalysts, allowing 95% peroxide and removing cat pack black magic issues.
  • *Develop the full range of motors necessary to build a nano-sat vehicle.
  • *Build a electric "turbopump" driven rocket motor.
  • *Do more development on 3d printed rocket motors. (This is really a $$ issue)
  • *Build and fly a two stage liquid rocket.
  • *Build out and test the paper concept I have for a very simple to construct Rocket Motor.
  • *Develop a set of compact brushless valves and actuators and Sell to NewSpace co's.
  • Build, test and sail a trans pacific autonomous sailboat.
  • Build a large envelope 3D printer IE a Makerbot on steroids.
  • Start something like Techshop in the San Diego area.
  • *Start something like the original Armadillo aerospace setup. IE get a building and have a group of volunteers working on some serious rocket projects with meetings/work parties twice a week or so.
  • *Start a properly funded venture funded rocket business.
  • Do some more public speaking. (I've really enjoyed the speaking I've done)
  • Build and market an RC helicopter "Oh Shit" Autopilot, IE a small box on an RC helicopter that will recover from dumb thumbs and put the vehicle in level hover if you screw up and hit the Oh shit button)
  • Do some more traveling and see parts of the world I have not seen.(South America, Asia)
  • Buy a big sailboat and take a long cruise.

Everything with a * is applicable to the NanoSat challenge.

So many choices so little time.....

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Nmart open 11 shopping mall on 11-11-11

ये हमारी ताकत और nmart की मजबूती का प्रमाण है की company ने एक दिन में ११ shopping mall open कर दिए Nmart को अब सभी लोग एक करियर के रूप में ले सकते है !

Minggu, 13 November 2011

Is Paying For Education Worthwhile?

There was an interesting comment to the blog last week from a poster who said he benefited from all the free stuff in the blog, but was questioning if it was worth paying for education like the Workshop.


He wrote:
EL, I have been following you for a long time and I think the free information you provide your readers with on a daily basis is great. I know it has helped me a great deal but reading this post really has me wondering how this workshop is worth $5,000? It seems kind of obvious and basic, particularly if you have been following this blog for any length of time. I too have hundreds if not thousands of strategies that show 63% profitability. I also know that if I add more filters and backtest more I may be able to get one of them to 65%. I considered joining the workshop but then decided not to mainly due to the fact that no indicator, book or seminar has been worth any dollar spent so far. I know I would be pissed if I spent another $5,000 to learn how to write an algo like the one you posed above. I know for a fact that your algos have losing days and I think it would be instrumental for you to post those as well. Its clear you are trading standard deviations masked in EMAs, and CCI triggers. Is that all there is to this entire blog?

Firstly, thanks for the comment.


Let me start out by saying, I agree that no indicator that I have found or seen is worth paying $5,000 for. I often buy bits and pieces I see if I want to look at them, paying up to a few hundred dollars if it's good. My last such purchase was Pete Steidlmayer's VOLUME STRIPS software, which I am looking at. I don't know if it will be any use or not yet, but I certainly thought it was worth $350 to find out and to learn something new from the person who has been a proven innovator.


Back to the comment. Some people can work things out for themselves and prefer doing that. I had to do that because I had no source of deep knowledge to teach me, although I was a member of CompuTrac and I did go to a number of seminars from people like Steidlmayer, Dalton, Larry Williams and a few others. I always learned something.


For me, the purpose of education in trading is to learn something I did not know, to learn how to do something that would take me a long time to figure out, or something without which I would probably lose a lot of money before I learnt it for myself.


The attendees at the workshop and those that will buy DVDs of it will get not only the knowledge that has been transferred during the workshop but the mentoring and assistance that I give them afterwards. The Workshop has two parts: the delivery of the material over the week and then 3 months putting it into practice. In addition, the trade logic and easylanguage code I supplied meant that re-inventing the wheel was not necessary.


The Workshop was full of material that took me years to figure out. The support that the attendees get is based on 45 years of trading. All short term day trading is trading deviations from mean or return to mean. How you do it is not all that simple, otherwise most people would be making money rather than losing. We have a dozen basic pictures to trade and a great many variations and nuances within those dozen pictures. Also money management is another part of trading. I hope you have read those posts too, because that is an important part of trading.

Today was biz as usual in the DAX. That means it took no prisoners. The highlight of the morning (London time) was the Fib to Fib trade. As you can see, I had several bites of the cherry as I know that the way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time. Those food metaphors really mean is that I am a very short term trader and don't hold a whole position for a long move. I scale and reload or All Out and reload.



Jumat, 11 November 2011

Popular Business Opportunities

Business opportunities are everywhere but there are some businesses that stand out more than others because of customer demands and the market trends. It is actually hard to predict where the business environment will be going a few years from now because every year, more businesses are closing while at the same time a lot of businesses are opening up. However, there are some businesses that

And Here's One We Made In The Workshop

We made a lot of progress in the Workshop so far. We worked Saturday to Tuesday. We had guys from all around the globe, stretching from California through Venezuela, Russia to Australia. A great and diligent group intent on moving their trading to the next level.


We are in the hands on portion of the Workshop. The guys are working to put into practice what they have learned. I added a couple of extra hours for tomorrow, Saturday for Q & A, and we have our final session on Sunday to address any issues that the attendees have discovered during their testing.


On Monday we created an algo to autotrade. We wrote it using the ES as our model for picking the trading pictures we wanted to capture. I then reconfigured that exact algo - same trading logic - to trade my favourite DAX. I decided to break my day into two and below you can see the London morning version (DAX trades differently after about London noon when America wakes up). Today it had three trades: two winners and a loser with an overall green day.


This algo has an expected win rate of about 63%. It's still a work in progress because it's missing a couple of filters, BUT IT IS TRADEABLE. The process of creating an algo, as the attendees discovered, is an iterative one. We create something that works and then improve it. We test and test and retest until we create an algo with the profile we want. We start with the trades we want to capture, how much we want to make, what our risk pain threshold is and use that as our goal in building the algo.





Kamis, 10 November 2011

8 Tips to More Business Blog Traffic & Visitors

So you’ve created a fantastic business blog that engages visitors with unique and valuable content — only your hit counters is moving at a snails pace...ie: no one knows how great your business blog is yet.

No Problem!

Getting visitors to your great content is not rocket science and will not require you to move mountains. Here’s how to get increased visitor traffic to your business blog.

Take Advantage of Your Network
If you’ve been actively getting out, mingling with neighbors, clients and other fellow business owners - you’ve built up a pretty good network of potential blog readers and website-owning associates. Drop them an email to let them know about your new blog and ask them if they’ll read it and recommend your articles.


Promote Your Blog’s URL
You're in business which means you understand that everything you do is related to marketing. This concept applies to your business blog as well! Keep an eye out for different ways to make people aware of your blog’s URL. The most obvious way is to include it on any branding material like business cards, letterhead, in your email signature, and of course on your website! Make sure your blog is easy to get to - don't just tell people you have a blog, be sure to include the address or link your blog icon directly to your business blog. If you have a storefront - create a poster or signage that compels people to check out your blog for compelling information. Be creative - there are no limits to the ways you can promote your blog.


Don’t Ignore Search Engine Optimization
Just like your website, making sure your business blog is optimized for search engines to find it is a very smart thing to do. It may not make much difference right away but search engines are constantly looking for current and valuable content. As you continue to establish this consistently, it will pay huge dividends the larger and older your blog gets. Be sure to include relevant keywords in your blog title especially so the search engines know what your post is mainly about.


Create a Consistent Theme
The majority of bloggers don’t design the themes for their blog. As a business blogger you'll want to make sure that your visitors can identify right away what your blog is about and the kind of information they can expect. The look and feel of your blog should match that of your business. Please don't confuse this with blatent advertising. If your blog only sells you and your products - then you are less likely to get repeat visitors or blog subscribers. Your blog content should relate to your business and brand you as the expert (clearly this should be part of your theme).


Comment on Other BlogsCommenting on other blogs is a great way to get noticed, both by the blogger and by people reading the comments. Make sure your comments add value to the discussion, though. Saying comments like “That’s right!” or “I agree” doesn't give me any kind of connection to your own knowledge. Plus the strategy could backfire in a huge way if you only make comments that tryto get visitors to your blog by spamming other blogs.

Create Valuable Links Within Your Blog
In every post you write, be sure to link to sources, your website, other associate's websites and other pertinent locations. If you link to another blog, most avid bloggers watch their sites and notice right away if someone has linked to them, quite often leading to a beautiful friendship. Create posts specifically to review, expound, critique or disagree with things other bloggers have written (always respectfully so), and be aware of other opportunities to link out in every post you write. Some people worry that this kind of link sharing will lead people away from your blog but to be honest, just like most social media - sharing is caring. Make your business blog visitor believe that you have their interests in mind and again, they will remember you as the expert!

Join a Blog Network
A blog network is simply a collection of blogs that help drive traffic to one another. Large, established networks might not accept new blogs, but many do hold open application periods every so often. You can also approach networks that look like a good fit for your blog or even start your own — getting visitors to your blog and helping others to do the same!


Most Importantly…
All of these ideas are based on the assumption that you are posting relevant content on your business blog — which is easily the number one way to get visitors to your blog. If you don’t have valuable content, you’re not going to stand out and get repeat visitors. If you do have great content, you may not have to do anything else. People will talk and link and promote you themselves without you having to lift a finger. It’s not quite “If you build it, they will come,” but it’s very close. The main thing you may have to remember is to be patient.


So spend you initial energy on posting stuff worth reading before you start trying to actively get people to read it. You will not be disappointed!

Get your Qlixite Business Blog Now!

Fit For Purpose

The recent indices markets' activity reminds me of the joke about the old lady who gets knocked down by a truck. The driver stops, sticks his head out of the window and looking back yells: "Watch out!". The old lady who is not hurt, but is lying on the road, yells back: "Why? Are you coming back?"


Investors are having a tough time because indeed the truck runs over them and then comes back and does it again.


Today's market was one of those. The overnight ES was quite weak and after the RTH close, continued the weakness shown in RTH. During the European session, the wind changed as the ECB and Italy acted. The news and rumors turned the market around causing a violent rally taking the ES from it's session low of 1218.00 to over 1242.00 in a very short time. Talking of shorts, it looked like the shorts were caught and that fueled the rally.


In the Workshop, we saw how to create an algo and then how to optimise it and make it robust so that it's fit for purpose. I very strongly emphasise that an algo must not just look profitable in optimisation and forward walking. It must be tradable, and the test for that is the SIM trading. The whole process of creating an algo is time consuming, as the testing must be rigorous. As any weaknesses or omissions are found in the trading logic, the creator needs to make adjustments and then retest. There must also be a protocol to both monitor the algo's performance and to keep it profitable.


The trades below are the Hybrid trades based upon one such algo. Tuning the algo to specialize in a specific time of the trading day is also a worthwhile thing to do.






Rabu, 09 November 2011

Tank V2.

The original tank shown in the last blog post did not pass hydro it failed at about 180PSI where the integral liner failed. This tank was desiged for 500PSI burst.

So the second attempt used a slightly different process for the liner. The liner actually turned out lighter, but it was so light that is started to buckle during the overwind process. We were targeting a 1000 PSI tank this time and the logitudinal windings for 1000 PSI were done, but the tank started to buckle after only about half the circumference windings. When this happend the tank was removed from the winding machine, slightly presurized and put in the curing oven.

Based on the partial winding the tank theoretical burst value was just over 500 PSI.
Today the tank burst at 500 PSI. There appears to be general stress all over the tank, but the failure was fairly catastrophic showing that the fiber matrix was distributing the load correctly and the failure was not a point failure. All in I'm very happy about this result.

With 85% peroxide the tank that just failed at 500PSI (Even with double the needed longitudinal windings) has a mass ratio of 36!!!!

We are about to make tank V3 and will modify the fixture so we can slightly pressurize the liner while winding.

Here is a picture of the tank.


Focus on DAX

I'm an avid DAX trader, as you all probably know. It took me a while to get back what I lost trading that contract, all those years ago, but it was worth it. The tick size of 12.5 Euro (0.5 points) is fantastic for a contract that can move 2,500 to 5,000 Euros during the 14 hours of the day that it trades.


More and more Americans are joining the party and volume has been climbing steadily, although a 300,000 contract day is still at the top end of, or even above,  normal.


The fact that the DAX trades for 14 hours a day means that it is available to traders from all over the world in all different time zones. It is an extremely volatile market, but once it is mastered you don't need many good trades in a day in order to hit the goal of even the most ambitious trader.


Caveat Emptor: DAX takes no prisoners and even a CP trader would find it worthwhile to SIM it until they find their feet. My cost of not SIMing was considerable. I didn't SIM, as the technology was not up to it back then.


The trades on the DAX chart below are fairly representative of what can be achieved using my methods. A lot of it can even be automated and Hybrid trading the DAX is a great help due to the volatility. Flo enters on limit orders, exits on limit targets that I post manually and I stop myself out manually when I am wrong. No slippage is the result.


Selasa, 08 November 2011

Loving the Hawthorn vibe

Hi Everyone


Wow wow wow, i can't believe how amazing it's all going. Customers coming through the doors are so impressed with all the gorgeous products and wonderfully relaxed atmosphere. I feel like i've been doing this for years and it's only been a few weeks. You know when something is so perfect it just FEELS right. I've never slept better. 


The local community has been so welcoming as well. Lots of locals have dropped in and introduced themselves which is such a lovely feeling as i'm new in this suburb. 


We have some exciting news actually, we are looking for a new cafe tenant! Expressions of interest are now being taken to lease the space and turn it into a dream cafe filled with passion, food and fun. Feel free to drop in any day if you would like to have a look at the huge space facilities that come with it including a full kitchen which has recently been put in.  
Could you turn this into a gorgeous cafe?
Lots of potential


Some great new products have come in over the past few weeks including Mum's Secret, Milk N Honey puzzle cubes,  Escargot clothing and swimwear, Toddler Tints, Afterglow kids soaps and Mooky shoes. 


We also have some fantastic items on sale in store, check out these bargains!
All Coco and Phoenix soft soled shoes just $15.95 for the month of November. 
25% off all Mini Treasure Kids Clothing 
Minim kerchief style bibs were $16, now just $12
Buy one, get one free in another colour (same size & style) on all Gypsy kids products. 
Deadwolf graphic tees were $45, on sale for just $29. Size boys 10 - Mens available


The new webstore should be up and running  by next week. 


Happy hump day!


Nicole Herrick
KIDS STYLE HUB
www.kidsstylehub.blogspot.com