Business at Warp Speed - Get Ready for the New Digital Revolution

[Cross-posted from Associated Industries of Massachusetts.]

All around us, things are accelerating. People, data, and information are all moving faster than ever before, accelerating at a pace that defies our understanding of the world and what is (or was thought to be) possible. 4G speeds, Google Instant, Tweets and check-ins, Facebook sign-ups, mobile device activations, video uploads – everything around us is growing and moving at exponential rates. Consider some of the statistics: in 2008, 300 million people were on social networks. That number is now over 900 million. In 2008 1.5 million people had visited Twitter. Last year over 190 million. In 2008 Google’s Android mobile platform had just launched. There are now over 300,000 Android device activations every day, and that number is growing. (Check out a really fun video showing the growth of Android here.)

And consider what has been happening in Middle Eastern countries of late. Via mobile phones and social networks, information is spreading and people are organizing at rates never before possible, allowing for rapid mobilization of ideas and massive social change.

In this world of constant connectivity, there is no doubt that fast is better than slow. From a consumer standpoint, you reap the benefits directly – connect to friends all over the world on Facebook, video chat with them on Skype, watch videos of the Grammy’s on YouTube, download Eminem’s latest to your iPod, search on Google for the shoes he wore, buy them on online…wait, sold out online?…check your local retailer’s inventory on Google Product Search, have your Android phone give you directions to your local mall, text your friends that you’ll meet them there, check in on Foursquare when you arrive… and on and on it goes, the flow of digital information accelerating at a rate that seems almost unimaginable.

So how do businesses keep up and take part in this digital evolution, nay, revolution? How do companies make use of this acceleration to reach consumers in meaningful ways? How do they change their own behaviors to keep up with the world around them?

Companies should look to get ahead of the consumer and these digital trends by focusing on 4 key characteristics: Google calls them the "4 Be’s"…

Be relevant – Mobile is how the world will connect to the Internet in the future. Mobile will be bigger than desktop in 5 years. Mobile searches grew 500% in the last two years. Mobile is what is relevant for today's and tomorrow's consumer. What is your company’s mobile strategy? Do you have one? Can it scale for the future?

Be found – Search is still the web’s killer app. With the proliferation of information, Search is how people find it and make use of it. Can people find you? Can they find your business and the products or services you offer?

Be engaging – We no longer live in a push advertising world. Consumers want and expect a dialog with companies. Social media like Facebook and Twitter make this possible. Online video has not only changed the face of entertainment but also the way companies can communicate. Companies and brands need to figure out how to be part of the conversation and how to effectively engage users across the entire spectrum of social media. What is your social media strategy? How are you effectively using online video to engage users?

Be accountable – the Internet has made real-time marketing a reality. You can constantly and continuously improve your digital efforts by using powerful analytical tools and the data they provide to make smart decisions. Things like Google Analytics, Insights for Search and others offer more data than ever before. How are you using it to make the best decisions for your company?

Success or failure in these four areas will determine your future. As “screen time” becomes mostly digital, as mobile becomes the norm for the masses, as consumers take more control of the dialog with companies and brands, and as everything becomes more real-time, businesses will need to evolve to keep pace…or run the risk of getting left behind.

Posted by: Seth van der Swaagh, National Industry Manager, AdWords

Not a Leap

No, it's not a leap year this year and here we are at the end of February.


The ES liked the VAL of Friday's RTH and that's what I started with, trading towards the gap close.


The market just popped during London's mid morning and I had to re-write my vision. After that there were a couple more trades, as you can see from the chart, until a short when the RTH morning's top was made. Flo did her bit in keeping me on the right side of the trades. It's not for nothing that there is the saying "Go with the Flo!"

MagnetStreet: From real estate to bridal customers, lessons learned . . .

[Cross-posted from the Google Retail Advertising Blog]

In 2005, MagnetStreet, a custom magnet developer, was 80% reliant on its Real Estate customers. Although Real Estate customers kept MagnetStreet employees busy from August to November, the rest of the year was stagnant. In order to resolve this staffing and seasonal production slump, to acquire new customers and to expand its product portfolio, MagnetStreet looked to Google and its suite of free tools.

MagnetStreet realized they were not utilizing an SEO or SEM strategy. So they leveraged Google's Keyword Tool to learn more about terms such as “magnets” and “promotional magnets", and how they could expand their keyword selection to be in front of actively searching magnet customers.

David Baird, Vice President of Marketing at MagnetStreet, was surprised to find out that “save-the-date wedding magnets” stood out as keywords of rapidly growing interest. This new product keyword trend spurred an information-gathering project that started with understanding what a save-the-date magnet was, and ended with a solution regarding how to enter the wedding market.

MagnetStreet was also pleased to learn, via Google Trends and Insights for Search, that this new venture revealed an interest peak in January, with a more consistent level of interest throughout the year than the real estate market. These Google tools also offered geographic data that gave MagnetStreet the opportunity to intelligently market to the local areas that showed the most interest in their product suite.

MagnetStreet continues to use Insights for Search to help them expand into new markets, discover additional product offerings, and to inform design, staffing and media decisions. They have expanded into selling wedding invitations and programs in addition to various occasion invitations and announcements.

When looking back at his business’ success, Mr. Baird credits Google’s tools with helping him to make smarter, low risk decisions and giving him the opportunity as a small business owner to compete with Big Box players.

Click here for more information on this success story.

Posted by Keri Overman, The Google Retail Team

Daily Profit Limit, Daily Loss Limit

Very early in the blog I spoke about a guy I knew in Los Angeles. He lived near Malibu and traded T-Bonds, the hot market of the mid 1980s. The S and P was just getting going and a 2 handle move was big.


The guy had a simple philosophy; he made 8 ticks in the T-Bond every day and then hopped into his Porsche and drove down to the beach. That was it. He increased size as he wanted to make more money.


I always thought there was something clever about this but my own work ethic always got in the way and I think/thought that you should keep on working while the market pays you to do it.


But maybe not. The stats below are taken from a TradeStation optimisation that we ran testing what daily profit and daily loss limit is the best. So many of my students have TradeStation, I opened a TS account again so I can duplicate their trading with the same data. BTW, I'm using what TradeStation calls "Momentum Bars" using the range I want constructed out of 1 tick data. These are most like the Range Bars I am used to in MarketDelta and other charting software.


The stats are quite interesting. The algo, periodicity (3 tick momentum (range) bars) and date range (6 months) and time traded, gave a daily profit limit ($750/contract) more than twice the daily loss limit ($350/contract), a very logical result.


What is even more interesting, I can use this to decide which are the best times of the day to trade in order to get the best stats. In this case, Flo trades from 9.30am NY time (the beginning of RTH) until 12.10pm NY time (2 hours and 49 minutes later). She trades limit orders so if she gets filled and she mostly has, then there is no slippage.


The more I use my FloBot to trade and test, the more I like it as it provides so much information and in fact makes me more money. Using a 'bot can not only bring CP to more people but it can do it much, much more quickly. I can override the exits and make even more by scaling out and using trailing stops. I've programmed that into Flo too and I'll share some ideas about that in later posts.
 

Summary

Monthly Profitability

Equity Curve

 

I was trading the ES today. It was an obvious gap day and I was short into the number and picked up a couple of points. I looked to re-short but Flo would have none of it. She just wanted the long side going into RTH. She enforced my discipline. Go Flo!

Going Google across the 50 States: Kentucky window manufacturer leaves desktop software behind

Editor's note: Over 3 million businesses have adopted Google Apps. Today we’ll hear from Steve Stepp, IT Manager of Sun Windows, a manufacturer of high quality windows and doors serving Owensboro, Kentucky and surrounding areas. To learn more about other organizations that have gone Google and share your story, visit our community map or test drive life in the cloud with the Go Google cloud calculator.

Sun Windows is a family-owned business that dates back to the 1930’s when V. E. Anderson, Sr. invented and built storm windows in his garage at night and sold them door-to-door during the day. Today, Sun Windows is run by his grandson, Frank Anderson, and offers an expansive product line of high quality, energy efficient windows and doors with a focus on customer service.

The window and door business is seasonal, following trends in new construction and peaking in summer. At the height, we have around 120 employees made up of about 80% production workers who manufacture the products, and 20% office staff and outside sales who use email and other office software regularly. Keeping everyone connected and communicating effectively is one of my main goals.

We originally used a local provider for web hosting and email and there was a lot of downtime when email just wouldn’t work. I’d get phone calls from individuals throughout the company and would have to contact our email provider about once a month. Adding to this, we received significantly more spam than good email. Sun Windows even got flagged as a spammer because all our emails went through the local provider. We’re a small company and everyone wears a lot of hats so these issues took up a lot of time I didn’t really have.

I used Gmail at home and had even set up Google Apps for my personal website so I knew about its robust spam-filtering and other great features. Given all the email problems we were having at work, I decided to switch the company to Google Apps and have never looked back. The amount of spam in our inboxes is almost nothing and having web-based email accessible from any Internet connection is a big plus for everyone. At the time of the switch, I hadn’t even considered the added benefits of other products like Google Calendar and Google Docs.

After setting up email, we quickly created shared calendars to keep various departments organized, track company events and schedule customer visits for the field service unit. Then we slowly started to use Google Docs. Most people in the company were familiar and comfortable with desktop office software but once they realized the power of collaborating and sharing documents online, almost everyone switched to Google Docs. Production line supervisors use a spreadsheet to track labor hours at the plant, and sales reps create and share customer presentations. We’ve also moved existing documents over to Google Docs which we use to store files of any type.

Now when new computers are purchased, I don’t renew our Microsoft® Office licences. The company saves money but even more importantly, I save time in administering licenses, installations, security patches, and training. Google Apps has been one of the smartest decisions I’ve made for Sun Windows and I continually look for new ways to take advantage of it to improve how we work.

Posted by Steve Stepp, IT Manager, Sun Windows

The "Oyl Bidness"

I loved J.R. I remember when the world stopped to watch Dallas on TV. Mixing Oil and the glamour of America's rich was a great formula. I saw it in action in real life too. In early 1971 I was in Denver and had dinner in the Brown Palace Club and the place was filled with the oil elite of the day.


There is said to be plenty of oil, yet we are paying £1.29 per litre here in London, about $USD7.92 per gallon. Yes, $7.92. One of my cars is a Mercedes ML500 and it costs over $170 to fill it up. It was only 11 years ago that I used to fill up my daughters' Toyota Echo in the States for $10.


I was driving through Spain in the early 1970's (1973?) when the oil crisis started. I had bought a BMW in Switzerland to drive around Europe. I pulled up at a petrol (gas) station to fill up one evening, somewhere on the South East coast. I did not have any pesetas, the Spanish currency at that time, and told the garage guy that I wanted to pay with U.S. Dollars. I received a very firm "Non". The dollar at that time was falling and this guy didn't want anything to do with it - the world's reserve currency. It was scary.


The world is getting scary again. Information is moving at the speed of thought. People are reacting to news instantly as markets are there 24x6.


The new normal is like a website that is "Under Construction". Opportunity is not just knocking, it is banging the door down.

If you wanted to trade today's Gap trade on the ES then you would have had to start earlier than RTH because it was all over by then. Luckily I'm here in Europe and recognised the beginning of the Gap close. Basically, the Gap had an 80% chance of 50% closing according to my back testing so I did not have much of a risk being early. As you can see, Flo was on the ball and made sure I didn't miss the opportunity.

Tips and tricks for Travel advertisers

In 2010 people researched their travel options more frequently, for longer periods of time, and on various online channels. This is good news for Travel marketers because you now have more opportunities to reach customers -- and many of these channels can help you more effectively promote your businesses. With marketing tools like YouTube and display ads, Travel marketers can actually show images of their destinations. For example, Hawaii’s official travel site showcases amazing beaches and palm trees on their YouTube channel. Don’t these videos make you want to take a trip to Hawaii?

We saw travel bookings pick up in 2010 and we’re expecting this trend to continue into 2011. This is the year of reaching your customers at every phase of the research process -- and compelling them with visual imagery. We’ve included our recommendations for doing so below:

Seasonality: Spring break travelers don’t start researching their options in March. Our research shows that the average traveler spends almost two months researching travel options before booking. As such, we suggest using Insights for Search to see when certain destinations are on the rise -- you can plan your search ad campaigns based on this seasonality. For example, searches for ‘hotel cancun’ actually peak in January.

Search: Our research shows that 78% of travel transactions involve research on a search engine.* In fact, the average traveler searches eight times prior to booking. In addition to timing your search ads campaigns with proper search seasonality, we recommend taking advantage of new search formats. For example, if you are advertising a destination, you can create a free listing on Google Places and include detailed information and pictures.

Content pages: Rather than consulting travel agents, consumers are turning to online reviews, videos, and blogs. This means consumers are more engaged and involved in the research process -- it also means you have more opportunities to reach them as they research their options. The average hotel booker, for example, conducts 20 research sessions on multiple sites prior to transacting.* What’s more, ad inventory on these sites is generally less competitive than search: The median Travel advertiser’s cost per acquisition on the Google Display Network is 2% less than that on search.** You can even measure the impact of your display ads using Campaign Insights.

YouTube: 81% of all travelers who watch online videos do so on YouTube. And the number of travel-related online videos has increased dramatically since 2009. Video is a compelling way to showcase travel destinations -- If you are marketing a destination site or a hotel, we recommend shooting video footage (it doesn’t have to be high-budget or flashy) and uploading this content to a YouTube Brand Channel and promoting this channel on your website. From there, you can explore advertising options to drive additional traffic to your channel.

Mobile: Personal travelers more than doubled their usage of mobile devices for travel purposes in the past year.** Research also shows that among travel consumers, purchase intent is five times higher on mobile ads than on desktop ads.*** New mobile ad technologies present a fantastic opportunity to reach these customers when they’re ready to actually take the leap of booking their trip. In particular -- and for Travel advertisers who do not have mobile websites -- we recommend enabling the Click to Call option, which allows customers to call you directly from their mobile phones.

The possibilities are endless -- and if you reach a customer at various phases throughout the research process with compelling messages and images, chances are he or she will be more likely to book with you. Have fun this year!

*Data from a ComScore Behavioral study.

** Data from an Internal Google study.

*** Data from an InsightExpress study.

Posted by: Sarah Travis, Team Manager, AdWords Travel Team

What gets in the Way of CP

After having mentored/trained a lot of people in the last year plus, I have a reasonable idea of what slows or prevents people getting to CP. I'll talk about a few of them today and some more in other posts.


Most of these CP blockers are inter-related and are rooted in the fear of losing money as their common denominator.


The problem manifests itself as the trader not being able to identify a good trading picture in real time and/or either can't pull the trigger, or worse, pulls it too late when the trade is "sure". Lots of reasons for this including:

• not enough specifics in the trading plan or no written trading plan
• not enough back testing, so there is no confidence in the trading picture
• not enough SIM trading to develop muscle memory resulting in not recognising the trading picture in real time as it unfolds.
• not enough trading capital. The solution is to trade small - even mini FX lots so that any loss has no real financial impact
• has to make trading profits to pay daily bills. The solution to this is to trade part time and keep your day job, trading markets that are active during your non job time zone.

Solving these issues will speed up CP at a surprising rate of knots. (That's Brit speak for speedy)


Today's ES RTH was a trade that has to be done, but is often difficult to do. If I take away the knife catching components of the trade and rely on my tested TP I can buy these types of trades. The second trade was very predictable and was more the bread and butter that I rely on every day.

GPS progress....

I built a GPS front end using a MAX2769... alas it does not work and I do not know why. I have it connected to an FPGA (PK70 FPGA blade board) . I spent all day Saturday and Sunday trying to find sats in the data record. So this evening after work I took a working GPS, An old Novatel Superstar II, and wired on some jumpers between the front end and the correlator. When I record that data stream and change my constants for a different Fsample and Fcenter I get Sats! I can ! even compute a positionSo all my basic hardware chain is working, just not the front end that is an exact implementation of a commercial IC reference design. Not the part of the design I expected to be bad. Progress.... now to decide if I want to just shell out 2K for a small
Non COCOM GPS that can do what I want or if I should spend a month or so finishing what I started, and have something to offer the community.

Go Flo

I bought the Gap trade at 1324.25, but only a 50% position, as I was buying against a Profile support blindly.


Then Flo gave a BUY and I was able to go to 150% position. Having Flo signal the trade one bar after my Gap entry gave me the confidence to add size. I have a couple of these types of trades in my TP. I ignored yesterday's low volume Presidents' Day activity and used 1334.00 as my target - the distribution just before the single prints.


I had scaled out of half by the time we got to 1329.00, the buying tail of last Thursday and finished off just under 1334.00.


This was a very text book trade in terms of what I have been teaching in the seminars and DVDs. Taking this high percentage trade is a must for me and is a large contributor to my annual P and L. The Gap trade is an easy trade to test and document in my TP and I make it into a well over 80% win rate the way I document it.


Creating a small set of pictures that you can trade, each with a high win rate, and trading them over and over again, is the way to achieve CP.

Groundhog Day

While today may be Presidents' Day in America, for me its Groundhog Day. These holiday days are always the same for me, at least most of them are. I use them for back testing.


The one thing that throws me, and most other people, off is the unknown. Fear of the unknown. The thing that makes me able to pull the trigger on a trade is the sure knowledge of my Trader's profile: my win rate, my drawdown, my maximum loss per trade, all my trading stats. I trade within my expectations.


I have a bunch of traders that I am mentoring and the answer to many of their questions is a one word solution: BACKTESTING.


Backtesting tells me what works and what doesn't. Backtesting tells me whether I should enter aggressively or not. Backtesting tells me how far out of the action my drop dead stop should be and backtesting tells me how large my average trade needs to be.


Backtesting and SIM trading are part of the roadmap to CP. 

Taking it easy today, so no chart.

Going Google across the 50 States: Tennessee media firm fights back on spam

[Cross-posted from the Google Enterprise Blog]

Editor's note: Over 3 million businesses have adopted Google Apps. Today we’ll hear from Rex Hammock, Founder and CEO of Hammock, a content and custom media firm in Nashville, Tennessee. To learn more about other organizations that have gone Google and share your story, visit our community map or test drive life in the cloud with the Go Google cloud calculator.

At Hammock, we develop and manage a wide array of content, helping our clients engage with customers to increase loyalty and extend the length of the relationship. Since I founded the company 20 years ago, our work has expanded from print newsletters and magazines to include a range of digital media, such as websites, blogs, event media, and more. We’ve grown to 20 full-time employees and have developed a network of over 1,000 freelancers across the country. Technology has played an important role in what we offer our clients and how we work together as a team.

A couple of years ago, when our Technology Director left the company, we decided to experiment with using an outsourced solution for networking and systems so our internal technology staff could focus on development and creative duties. The experience gave us confidence to outsource other parts of IT so when the email server became unreliable and couldn't filter spam as well as our personal Gmail accounts, we started researching alternative solutions. With the help of an external IT service, we unplugged the email server and switched to Google Apps.

Fixing our spam problem – which Gmail has done amazingly well – would have been enough to make the switch to Google Apps worth it. We did a cost analysis per employee, however, and keeping servers in-house for just email would have been more expensive than the entire suite of Google Apps. Plus, adding calendars, contacts and documents, all of which sync nicely to our smart phones, tablets, and home computers has changed the way we work for the better.

Collaborating across our expansive network of contributors is critical and most of us use Google Docs for sharing and updating documents. Spreadsheets have also helped us manage our own newsletter subscriptions – a Google form is embedded on our website to collect information from individuals who want to receive our newsletter. Information from the form is imported directly into a Google spreadsheet that we access internally.

The ecosystem around Google Apps is helping us further meet our unique needs. We use Manymoon, a 3rd party application from the Google Apps Marketplace, to help with project management and it has resolved a number of workflow issues. Manymoon is a little like an in-house social network where, instead of setting up pages related to your favorite club or cause, you set up project pages where you can consolidate information and track progress. Because Manymoon integrates directly with Google Apps, it’s easy to add Google documents, calendar entries and emails related to a project.

For some people in the company, there was a reluctance to give up traditional desktop applications. However, it has been easy for me to evangelize Google Apps internally and I think we'd all agree now that the switch has had a positive impact on how we work.

Posted by Rex Hammock, Founder and CEO, Hammock

The Turn

There are some similarities between trading and poker, although there are important differences too. As a trader, I decide which hands I want to play without putting up an ante and I have a stop loss. What may be a commonality between Hold'Em and trading is The Turn.


If I can identify change in the trend - and I'm talking about the only trend that matters, the trend in the chart I am trading - then I can often get a long ride. The question then becomes one of style: trying to catch the whole move until another trend change or just trading the peak to trough or trough to peak of the moves along the trend. There may be more than one attempt to catch the Turn but positioning myself is important because I can start scaling out in case there is no follow through, and I can capitalise on it if I have indeed caught the Turn.


In the Euro futures chart below, you can see the Turn that I have marked. After that there are arrows where Flo and I have identified entry pictures. She's gotten pretty good on the entries and our exit algos are not bad, but my trade management is better manually. Catching that last move up on the Turn was awesome, pure Flo.

In one way trading the way I do, catching peaks and troughs, is more difficult as I have to be right more often than if I can identify the Turns. But for me, it's a matter of what suits me or is in my trader's DNA. I was always very short term and my experience on the floor reinforced that preference. However, it's not the same for everyone. There is a choice and the TP should reflect that.

How Much Capital Does This Biz Need?

The starting point is what you need to live, to pay the bills, and to provide a life.

Unless you have a buffer of funds that you can live from, apart from your trading account, a new trader is better off perfecting his craft while he has an income from another source. Having the pressure of "needing to make money" makes it tough. I have a student who is doing it without the buffer funds, but he has exceptional mental control.

I wrote a piece in our EL group in response to a question. The piece goes over the maths, and I'll reproduce it here:

Return on capital is not how I think about this business. I am trading not investing.

If your starting point is that you want to earn, say, at least $70,000 a year and you are working 5 days a week for 46 weeks  a year then that means you need to average $70,000 divided by (46 x 5) = $305/day

If you are trading, say, the ES, that is 7 points a day profit.

If you trade just this one market and only trade the first sling after the zero line cross by the 45CCI and it occurs 2 times a day or 10 times a week and your back testing shows a 70% win rate with a 1 point target, then you should make 7 points/week/contract and lose 3 points/week/contract leaving a net of 4 points a week/contract.

Now your 4 points is $200 but your weekly requirement is 35 points. Therefore, to achieve an average of $305/day using the above single limited strategy you need to trade 35/4 contracts or, say 9 contracts per trade. To trade 9 contracts, I need at least $45,000.

Now, if your capital or other criteria does not allow this, then you have a lot of other adjustments you can make:

Look for more than 2 setups a day by either making more than just 1 point per contract per trade, adding different pictures (eg NAT), or shortening your 5 tick range bar to 3 or even 1 (I'm trading 1 tick range bars on the ES and 3 on the Euro at times) or trading longer hours or trading another market such as the euro where there may be more opportunities or a combination of all of the above.

These are just some of the ideas that you can look at. In the end, trading is about your being able to follow a tested plan as Michael said AND getting the maths right for the plan.

The first step is to use the computer and program it with a basic trading plan. The result should provide a 70% plus win rate and be profitable. This will show that you have the required edge. Now to a certain extent, the test will curve fit, usually with stops and targets that change over time as the dynamics of the market changes. Your tested stops and targets were the average for the period under test, but tomorrow those stops and targets may not be appropriate - hence discretionary or hybrid trading. But you have a proof of concept.

This testing will provide statistics that you can use for the above calculations. You will know how many points a day you are likely to make if all goes according to plan and can then have the answers you need.

The next step is to get to CP on the minimum size and then slowly add size until the earning requirements are met.

The variation in results come about not from the entries but from the exits. The pictures to enter can be fairly written in stone. How the context unfolds will be what determines how much, if anything, you make out of the trade. This is one of the reasons why I am using Hybrid Trading, as the computer can repetitively find my entries and trigger them more quickly and efficiently than I can but I can manage the trades better than the algo.

Summarizing, you need to start with what you need to earn and then reverse engineer to how much capital you need to provide that earning based on the trader's profile you create in SIM.

In this context, I always remember the story of Tom Baldwin who became the biggest local on the T-Bonds on the Board of Trade in the mid 1980s. He went down on the floor and couldn't make it happen. He tried everything and just kept losing money. He was down to his last $25,000 and had a baby on the way, when suddenly it clicked. He went on to make millions of dollars trading size of over 1,000 contracts.

So how much capital do you need for this business? Not a lot once you learn how to trade. The secret is to survive until you do and with today's technology and 24 hour markets, you can get to CP in SIM without risking a penny and without giving up your day job. Yes, it takes hard work, long hours and sacrifice but if you have the passion and the hunger you may think it's worth it.

BTW, I've got a link on the top right hand side of the blog to an interview Tim  Bourquin of traderinterviews.com did with me last week.

It was the Euro again today. The 3 tick range bar chart is pretty quick. I only traded in the afternoon. The first and third trades were small losers but most of the trades worked out OK. Lots of work, mostly 5 and 7 tick trades but sometimes it's good to get back to micro trading.

Advertisers save time and uncover new keyword ideas with the Opportunities tab

[Cross-posted from Inside AdWords Blog.]

If you're a small business, time can often feel like your most valuable and most constrained resource. While youíre doing everything you need to do to keep your business up and running, important tasks like AdWords account optimization can fall to the bottom of your to-do list.

Knowing that time is a key factor for all AdWords advertisers, we created the Opportunities tab to provide you with automated and customized keyword, bid, and budget ideas. Here are two stories of advertisers who used the Opportunities tab to find new keywords quickly and easily.

Fitness Singles
Chris Mattioli founded Fitness Singles, a fitness-focused online dating website in 2003. With Chrisís dedication and some help from AdWords, he has grown his business to over one million global members today.

click for full size image

Like many small business owners, Chris wanted to improve his AdWords performance, but didn't have a lot of time to work on his account. When Chris discovered the Opportunities tab, he knew it was a good fit for Fitness Singles, since it allowed him to uncover new keywords quickly and easily.

Chris scans the keyword ideas in the Opportunities tab regularly to find terms related to fitness, online dating, and singles. He's found many ideas that are similar to the keyword combinations and variations that are in his account, but that he may have accidentally overlooked. He's also found completely new relevant keywords to include in his campaigns. In one instance, Chris saw terms such as promotion code and coupon among his keyword ideas. From there, he decided to add a number of discount-based keywords to his campaigns. Chris says, "The Opportunities tab can often find new keywords that are relevant our ads and that don't currently exist in our account. It also helps you identify new keyword areas--even when you thought you had it covered."

resortsandlodges.com
Ryan Bailey, President and Co-Founder of resortsandlodges.com, describes his company as a full-service agency rather than a travel directory. "We have a rapidly growing client base of two thousand-plus and a business model that gives our clients turnkey marketing and advertising support." While part of a large company, VEMGlobal.com, resortsandlodges.com runs as a small business and keeps its operations small and scrappy.

On the site, you can 'book your spot' to save your travel information, plan your next trip, and more
click for full size image

Like Fitness Singles, resortsandlodges.com uses the Opportunities tab to find new keyword ideas and save time. Ryan says, "The Opportunities tab provides high-quality keywords--and a lot of ideas we wouldnít have thought of otherwise, which is the whole point! It's great that you can easily scan through the ideas and find hidden jewels and then apply those insights for both keyword selection and site optimization."

Mollie Moore, the company's interactive marketing manager, also used the Opportunities tab to help with a website redesign project in March 2010. The previous version of resortsandlodges.com had dozens of links at the bottom of the page, and Moore was tasked with de-cluttering and limiting these links to the most important content. Looking at the number of keyword ideas associated with a particular theme as well as the traffic estimates for each keyword idea, the team learned that ìthe most effective content sections were top destinations, popular resort types, popular trips, and so forth," says Moore. "We also used ideas from the Opportunities tab to build out our meta titles, descriptions and keywords embedded in the back-end of every page on the site. Using the Opportunities tab, we can reduce guesswork in determining the most effective content."

To learn more about Fitness Singles and resortsandlodges.com and how they use the Opportunities tab, read their full case studies in the AdWords Help Center. You can learn more about the Opportunities tab in the AdWords Help Center or our YouTube video series.

Posted by Nathania Lozada, Inside AdWords crew

Flo in the Cloud

FloBot is fully operational in the cloud. I haven't done any assessment yet on whether I am making more money because of the reduced latency, as it's early days yet.

However, there was an added benefit yesterday.

My main PC is a heavy duty i7 930 quad core with RAID. Last week I had a RAID failure and I am ashamed to admit that because I was so busy with a new project, I didn't rebuild the RAID volume and chose to wing it with a solo data drive (my operating system is running on a solid state drive protected by a daily Acronis image stored on yet another drive).

Yesterday, the other drive in the RAID pair threw its arms and legs into the air. Flo was in the cloud. I had to stop some other trading I was doing locally but jumped on my laptop to get into the cloud to transfer everything there and bring things under control.

Meanwhile, I went back to the broken PC and discovered that the drive had not failed, only the RAID had failed. Seems that the super 10,000 RPM 1Tb Western Dig drives are not RAID aware and fall out of the Volume sometimes. That's what happened last week too. So I'm back up now on a single drive and the RAID is being rebuilt overnight.

Bloody hell, you have to be an expert at everything. The guy that I had build the PC should have known about RAID aware drives.

I'm glad I moved to the cloud. It changes my whole IT strategy going forward. It means that I won't buy any more heavy duty hardware to run locally any more, just run in the cloud and access the cloud using lower spec non redundant hardware. And I can access it from which ever place I'm at.

The Euro continues to be a good market. It has both volatility and enough depth to its moves. I trade it with anything from a 3 tick range bar chart to a 9 tick range bar chart. Lately, the 3 range has been pretty awesome, but is a bit fast to trade manually. With Flo triggering the entries, it's much easier. The sequence below was just part of the day.

The Austin Chamber of Commerce Welcomes Google to Central Texas

(Cross-posted from the Hotpot Blog.)

Editor’s Note: Last week we kicked off a local marketing campaign for Google Places in Austin, Texas, to spread the word about all the Google tools business owners can use to connect with customers. Here, our new friend Rebecca with the Austin Chamber of Commerce talks about why Google’s a great fit for the Austin small business community.

Several weeks ago Google called us. They were looking to work with the Austin Chamber of Commerce and Austin’s local business community for a new marketing campaign about Google Places. Google’s been taking a new approach to marketing Google Places, their business listings, and a recently launched tool to help connect customers to those businesses, Hotpot. We were thrilled to hear about their interest in Austin.

Why Austin? Our national recognition as a tech-savvy hub for business development means the city is a natural fit for Google’s initiatives. The Google Places Business Kits will be introduced to the Austin Chamber’s network of business leaders in central Texas. These kits include a sampler of marketing materials that can help businesses get more exposure, get them reviewed online, and get more customers through their door.

Business owners also will have the ability to connect with potential customers through Google’s new rating tool, Hotpot. With Hotpot, people now have the ability to rate and review local businesses and share those opinions with friends. When that person uses Google to search for local places, their search results become more personalized based on their tastes and those of their friends.

At the Chamber, we’re always working to understand the small business climate as we develop our benefit programs. One trend we’ve noticed is the convergence of social and mobile computing, along with the growth of location technology and services. Google Places and Hotpot act as a great set of tools business owners can use to take advantage of these trends.

As small business owners look to expand their market reach, online promotion plays an increasingly important role in both attracting new businesses and retaining loyal customers. Easy access to accurate information online and helpful reviews work toward business stability. Google’s partnership with businesses in our city will support and enhance the opportunities for raising a branded level of awareness to the consumer. Certainly, it will be exciting to witness what happens in the marketplace when Google, with its global reach, meets Austin, whose reputation for innovation and creativity is well-earned. We at the Chamber are forecasting exciting new developments ahead in 2011.

Posted by Rebecca Martin, SVP, Austin Chamber of Commerce

It was the Best of Times...It was the Worst of Times...

The song went something like that. Today we hear the economic crisis has passed then with the next newscast, it still is present but weakening. The economy is improving but taking a very slow upward tick. Regardless of what we hear, read or speak, we have been in one of the worst recessions ever recorded and we are probably not out of it by a long shot. But even with the improvement, it is

Learning from History

The Spanish-American George Santayana is credited with the quote:  “Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

In trading, we see history repeat itself. We see the same patterns being repeated over and over. One such patter is the Euro between about 6.30am and 7.30am New York time. Looking at a 3 tick range bar I see the same trade over and over. The trade can be both short, or its mirror image - long. The last 3 or 4 days you could almost put the trade on in advance and go get coffee and make money. It doesn't mean that it will happen every day but the fact that a pattern is there makes it easier to make money.

There are patterns like this all over the place. Noticing them can add hugely to my results at the end of each year. Ching! Ching!

Another Fall of the Berlin Wall?

I hope that what we have seen unfold in the last three weeks in the Middle East has been another event similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall. I think I have spoken about the money that was made on the floor trading during that 1989/90 period.

This time seems to be a little different, as although we have an event seeking the shedding of a dictatorship in search of democracy, we do have some dark shadows hiding in the wings which create additional uncertainty.

The only reason I am blogging about this is to highlight the opportunities we have around us. We have a very uncertain international environment which we are trading in, both economically and socially. The product of this uncertainty must be a number of so called "black swan" events, things that will happen that are outside our contemplation. As this uncertainty becomes more understood, volatility shall increase and that will translate into even more opportunity for day traders. We just need to be ready to take advantage of them.

The Euro has continued to provide the milk and cream. The trades today consist of almost all of the pictures (setups) that I have been using and teaching. One of the requirements of reaching CP is to be able to make the same trade over and over. That can only be done once a picture has been identified, documented and back tested to infinity. That done, it's a matter of training your muscle memory to recognise them in the heat of battle, or to program your computer to recognise them and trigger the trade automatically. The trades today are a mixture of auto and manual.

New Baby Made Super Bowl Entrance

As Chris and Gina Tarr settled in to watch the Super Bowl on Sunday afternoon, the couple started to get nervous about what was going to transpire.

But it wasn’t the game they were most anxious about.

Instead, Gina went into labor about five hours before kickoff and the couple rushed to West Penn Hospital in Bloomfield to deliver their first child.

“It was the perfect storm,” Chris Tarr said. “The Steelers game kept me distracted so I wasn’t so stressed out. It took the edge off. If I was watching the Super Bowl and they were losing, I would’ve been upset. It made it even keel.”

The delivery doctor initially thought the baby would be born in the early morning hours Monday, but little Eli William decided to make his appearance just as the game ended.

“Almost exactly when they were handing the Packers the Lombardi Trophy,” Tarr said.

Read more...

Going Google across the 50 states: Missouri consulting firm removes communication barriers

(Cross-posted from the Official Google Enterprise Blog)

Editor's note: Over 3 million businesses have adopted Google Apps. Today we’ll hear from Tom Dey, co-Founder of DeyFischer Consulting in Missouri. To learn more about other organizations that have gone Google and share your story, visit our community map or test drive life in the cloud with the Go Google cloud calculator.

A typical day for a DeyFischer consultant doesn’t often involve our corporate offices, and they’re rarely in the same city as the week before. Our more than 50 consultants are out in the field, working side-by-side with clients around the world to deliver SAP business solutions. Back at our headquarters in Missouri, and SAP retail office in Atlanta, we have DeyFischer business managers, recruiters and an administrative team – but no IT personnel on staff.

At any given time across the company, we’re operating in dozens of countries and time zones. Before Google Apps, we were using a variety of different email clients and calendar systems – it was a free-for-all when it came to which office tools individuals wanted to use. Supporting all these tools was very labor-intensive. Our administrative team had to send each new consultant instructions on how to set up their email client so we could forward DeyFischer email to them. Corporate contacts and calendars, which are vital in our business, were sent out only once a month because sharing them was so cumbersome.

With Google Apps, communication is seamless and our administrative team can go back to its core job: driving revenue for the company, rather than serving as a help desk. To set up Google Apps, we worked with Umzuzu, a Google Apps Authorized Reseller. Umzuzu designed a strategy to help us transition to the cloud that included migrating old emails and comprehensive training for all employees. The whole process was painless and during it all, we had no downtime or lost emails – which our employees were grateful for!

Part of the transition included migrating our more than 3,500 contacts over to Google Apps. With advice and technical support from Umzuzu, we implemented Floreysoft’s Shared Contacts application from the Google Apps Marketplace. It’s integrated directly with Google Apps so when someone at DeyFischer adds a contact to the database, it’s immediately available to consultants across the company.

With Google Apps, communications have changed for the better and employees are now more productive in the office and on the road where they can easily access email, calendar and other important documents on their laptops or mobile phones. Scheduling is even easier with many consultants using Google Calendar to send meeting invitations directly to their clients.

We’re growing fast and Google Apps is helping us keep up the pace. Unlike before, email accounts are now created quickly and easily, and new employees are directed to a welcome site created with Google Sites. This frees the management and administrative teams to focus on hiring exceptional consultants rather than on-boarding new ones. Google Apps is helping us expand and reach new heights.

Posted by Tom Dey, co-Founder, DeyFischer Consulting

It Can't be Easier than This!

Today's ES trade was a gimme. Didn't even have to bend over to pick up the money. London Underground recording says it all. We spend quite a lot of time on this trade on the DVDs as it can be so rewarding when the picture sets up. And it sets up often in both the ES and the ESTX50. See the vid.

Keep Your Recommendations Weird in Austin

(Cross-posted from the Hotpot Blog.)

Editor’s Note: Starting today, we’re kicking off a local marketing campaign in Austin, Texas, to spread the word about Google Places and Hotpot among local business owners and those who live and work in the area. To get the Austin party started, we’ve teamed up with Torchy’s Tacos to give away delicious free tacos to their customers (get ‘em while they’re hot!). We asked Tiffany Harelik, a fourth generation Austinite and member of the Torchy’s team, to write a little something for the blog about working with Google and some of the amazing food Austin has to offer.

Photo courtesy of Jared Tennant Photography

When Google first called me at Torchy’s Tacos, they said they were coming to my hometown to celebrate Austin’s local business community. Hot off the track from launching Hotpot, a new local recommendation engine from Google Places, Google has chosen Austin to promote this fun new technology because of our forward-thinking and love for all things local. And several Austinites had recommended Torchy’s as a great team to partner with when Google hit town. 

Cecelia and Vanessa from the Hotpot team met me at the Trailer Park on South 1st Street to chat about all the delicious food we offer here in Austin, and to talk about all the Google products you can use to help your business (or your favorite Austin business) connect with customers. Cecelia had a clue about Austin’s great food offers, being a UT alumna, but Vanessa was new to the Tex-Mex scene, so we had to order some tacos before we could even proceed.

Photo courtesy of Jared Tennant Photography

We quickly decided we wanted to do something fun for Torchy’s customers, and what’s more fun than free tacos?

Thus, I'm exceptionally excited to announce that we’ll be giving away — on Google — the Hotpot taco (or for those familiar with our menu, the Migas) at all six Torchy's Tacos locations until 2pm today. Keep in mind this is while supplies last and one per customer. Woohoo! Thanks, Google.

Now back to Hotpot. It’s a tool that supports local businesses by allowing users to share the places they love with their friends and discover new places they might like. As both a local Austin business owner and someone who reviews other local businesses, I'm excited about Hotpot and very happy to see big dogs like Google collaborating with unique trendsetters like Torchy's.

One of the fun features of Hotpot is the Best Ever medal, reserved only for the most deserving of favorite local spots. The Google girls asked me about some of my Best Ever trailer food vendors so they could check them out while here in Austin. (This, as you know, is always my most dreaded question. Trailers, you’re all pretty.) But for you, Google and readers, here is just a tiny portion of the awesome trailers not to miss, in addition to our beloved Torchy's:

G'Raj Mahal – fine Indian dining al fresco on Rainey Street
La Boite Cafe – unique local bistro cuisine in an eco-friendly box on S. Lamar
Franklin Barbecue - a must-have mouthwatering bbq experience east of campus
Hey Cupcake! - selling thousands of swanky cupcakes a day in multiple locations
Mighty Cone - gourmet fried chicken from the creators of Hudson's on the Bend on South Congress
Lulu B's Sandwiches - one of the best-kept underground secrets of sandwich teases on S. Lamar
The Flying Carpet – incredible Moroccan food from a loving family on South Congress

Photo courtesy of Jared Tennant Photography

A big thanks again to Google for recognizing Austin for one of the things we love about ourselves: that we vote with our dollars by supporting each others' businesses both on and offline.

Posted by Tiffany Harelik. Tiffany started her company Trailer Food Diaries with nothing more than a blog in February 2010. Attracting the attention of C3 Presents, she partnered with them to create the first annual Gypsy Picnic trailer food festival last fall. Her successes led local trailer food ambassadors Torchy's Tacos to hire her, and she consults with other trailer food vendors across the country. Her trailer food cookbook will be coming out this fall. She remains inspired by the foodie-entrepreneurs she encounters on her trailer food journeys.

How do I Hire an Accountant?

That is a question I am asked when a client and I talk about the business team for a small business. It seems most people wanting to start a business are familiar with accountants for their personal uses but when it comes to using one for their business, they think it is so difficult or even so diffrent. I usually ask them how they sought out the one they have now? We discuss their answers and

Tips and tricks for Retail advertisers

Please enjoy the second post in the series of tips and tricks for advertising within your industry. This week: Retail! Up next is Travel.

There are countless varieties of products, services, and companies within the Retail industry, but one thing unites us all: seasonality. Whether you’re selling school supplies, MP3 Players, or sports gear, you probably have a ‘hot season’ and some semblance of a ‘down season.’ I think our biggest trap as Retail advertisers is to only focus our efforts on the hot season; whereas Retail marketing should really happen year-round.

You have a lot of options and resources -- both free and paid -- available for marketing your business throughout the year. Below I’ve outlined a few of my favorite tools and tips.

• Figure out when your hot season actually starts. Many marketers assume they know when their hot season starts and ends or they base this year’s strategy on last year’s season. Use Insights for Search to better understand when customers begin to search for your products. If you look at search volume on ‘swimsuits,’ you’ll notice that queries actually begin to rise in January and maintain steady volume throughout July. Don’t fall into the trap of advertising swimsuits only in the summer!

• Use different types of campaigns at different times. Once you fully understand your seasonality, think critically about the different types of advertising you’ll do throughout the year. For AdWords customers, for example, I recommend exploring theRemarketing Tool to keep track of customers who may have visited your site during the down season. When hot season strikes again, you’ll be able to reach these customers when they are more actively pursuing your products. Remarketing is also a great way for AdWords customers with multiple seasons to reach people throughout the year. For example, if you sell flowers, you can set up a cookie to target people who purchased flowers from you on Valentine's Day, and then begin showing them ads for your Mother's Day specials in April.

• Through it all, continue to optimize your account structure. Once you’ve established the initial structure of your account, be sure to track performance and optimize your keyword lists and ad texts, particularly during down seasons. I recommend using the ‘Search terms’ report on your broad match keywords or the Opportunities Tab to identify new keyword ideas as well as negative keywords. For your ad text, look at which ads converted best in the previous hot season, and see if any consistent themes jump out. You may notice that mentioning ‘Save 20% on Gifts’ worked better than ‘Save Big on Gifts’ and you can edit your text accordingly for the next hot season.

• Take advantage of free offerings, particularly during the down season. For Retailers with physical locations, it’s imperative that you create a listing on Google Places. Particularly as consumers increasingly search while they are on the go, it’s important that people know when they are near your physical location!

Think of how much more time you have when you’re in the down season -- and use this time to optimize and grow your business in advance of the hot season. Our customers’ interests and behaviors change each year and yes, it can be difficult to keep up. Lucky for us, we have plenty of options to reach our customers at different phases of the conversion cycle and many tools to better understand our customers. Best of luck in 2011!

Posted by Tim Freeth, Team Lead, AdWords Retail

Another Day Grinding It Out

It was just another day in the office today. The Euro continues to play nice. The vid shows it all.

What a Great Losing Trade

I had a great day in the Euro, a T-Bond trade and then there was the ES.


I tried to buy the VAL for the Gap trade but it didn't trade there until after the Gap was filled. By then, if it traded down to yesterday's VAL, it would be a neutral day. The high probability trade is to buy the second range extension and trade it back to the middle.


I was a bit early and bought 1317.00 and then I bought where I should have bought in the first place: 1316.50. My stop point would be where the zipper was, which started at 1315.25. Like general Custer, I made my last stand buying 1315.75 as I would be stopped at around 1315.00 ish if the flow was still downwards.


I, like Custer, was massacred, but it was a good massacre as I did what was in my trading plan. The last position took me to 150% but was very close to my stop point, so the added risk was not much more.


Buying the second range extension in the ES is still a high probability trade for me and I'll keep on doing it. I see double prints on the zipper as I'm writing this and it looks like the market is trying to climb back to the middle of the profile. Again sadly, it will do it without me as I can't buy it here, as the zipper has been violated.