Jumat, 30 Juli 2010

Val was Struck by Lightening

Why back test your idea any way? EL has mentioned many times in his posts that you need to back test your or his setups before putting any money at risk. I asked myself the question above many times and did not find any credible answers for me. I am this kind of guy who does not listen right away and sometimes never. The first thing EL told us to do is, you guess, back test “our setups”. Since I paid money, I forced myself to do it. Why forcing? Programming is not my strength, therefore I would need to do it “by hand”, which requires plenty of time. So I went over 2 months of range bar charts with EL’s indicators on them looking for “my setup” and validating it for a profit or a loss.
After encountering about 10 trades a “lightening” bolt struck me. It can’t be! It is the Law of Large Numbers that makes the whole concept of “having a plan and trading it” work. If you studied maths at an elite university as I did, then discovering the Holy Grail during such a simple procedure makes you embarrassed. After 5 years of studying in-understandable stuff for most of people you should have seen this without back testing. I continued with my back testing and discovered all the nuances that made me feel confident that “this stuff works” with or without the Law of Large Numbers.
So, if you very often do not listen like me, please just do that: go over your charts and find 10 trades to validate your setup. I guarantee you, even if the lightening does not strike you, you will see the picture of your setup more clearly than before. And this is the first tiny step for all of us on our way to CP.
Hang in there,
Val

Happy Holidays

The hap-happiest season of the year finally has arrived. It's that proud yinzer tradition of salivating at the very thought of watching a few overpaid football players pulling big screen televisions out of their fancy cars before running wind sprints to open training camp in Latrobe, Pa. Of course, all of this is a welcome distraction from our bland lives (and the abysmal Pirates baseball club) in the middle of summer.

So how did we get here?

Obviously, professional football (along with the college and fantasy versions) has taken over our lives. But do the Steelers really mean more to Pittsburgh that other teams mean to their respective cities? I would have to say undoubtedly yes.

The Steelers will forever be linked with the molten metal that made Pittsburgh. But it seems incredibly ironic that the football team was becoming an unbeatable dynasty in the 1970s just as the city was losing that very industry. An untold number of yinzers left Western Pennsylvania to find jobs elsewhere, but they remained devoted to the team. Meanwhile, the Pirates' clubhouse devolved into a crackhouse and the Penguins were still awaiting the arrival of Le Magnifique.

Even as the Steelers struggled through the 80s, out-of-towners held on to the football team as the only connection to their city. I knew that feeling when I lived for a couple years in Charleston, W.Va., but made sure to follow every play from my living room couch.

Say what you want about the modern-day players who have tarnished the team's imagine, but I can't see a day when yinzers aren't frothing at the mouth as the Steelers report to training camp. It's a special bond between a city and its team... unless, of course, they go 6-10.

Kamis, 29 Juli 2010

Thoughts from Zen Trader

“Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan”. You may or may not have heard this piece of Zen like advice but what does it really mean? It means much more to me now that it did three weeks ago before I commenced training.

Let me start by saying it’s not something EL has said during the course but he has set out in my opinion exactly what it means. In order to trade effectively (let’s call that consistently generating revenue) one needs to understand completely what ones actions will be in the range of circumstances that can arise throughout the trading day. 

This understanding while inclusive of the general is certainly well beyond that. It’s a specific understanding of every activity from larger business consideration right down through into what specific things are required to align then trigger a trade, and manage it through every tick and exit it.

I can’t emphasise enough the word specific. Sounds like a lot of work. Yep that’s right it is but it’s this understanding of what each action will be and it’s probable impact of returns that lays the foundation of belief required to act without hesitation. 

What is the ability to act without hesitation? It’s trading in the “zone”.
Lets’ not forget the word Your in the saying. It needs to be Your plan. Not one you’ve read from a book or been given to you. YOU need to have defined aspects of the plan. You need to have back tested it, traded it in sim and understand its statistics; you need to have a clear understanding of the impact of every action.

Let me be blunt. If you think you can be given a set-up and then trade it in the same way as the person that provided it, think again you won’t. We’re all different and you have to make it all your own.

Good luck...
Zen Trader

Rabu, 28 Juli 2010

The Doo-Wop, Doo-Wah

Before I started the current training, marathon I asked Kiki what I had done right and what I could have done better in training her.

One of the things she told me was that the Outside in trades were the hardest for her. It was knife-catching as I call it and it was OK to DoubleDown once but not more than that as she would have to run for cover.

I assumed that the attendees at the training would have the same issue so I looked for a way of solving the problem. The answer was the VWAP- Volume Weighted Average Price. There is plenty of info on the web if you Google it.

MarketDelta and IRT have an excellent built in VWAP Oscillator which you can see on my charts and that I have successfully used in the training to help identify the extremes from price. Mixing this with changes in momentum has proven to be a great way of better qualifying Outside in trades in a very visual and quick way.

Selasa, 27 Juli 2010

Rules are Rules or Are They?

A discretionary trader by definition, trades discretionarily.

Sounds simple but then why do so many discretionary traders try and have mechanical trading rules? If you trade mechanically, you are better off programming a computer and having it execute your trades because it doesn't get tired, doesn't get faked out and is both focused and can trade many markets at the same time.

As a discretionary trader I am trading a scenario that reveals itself in a "picture". The picture needs to look "right". "Right" may mean different things in different contexts. This why I say that sometimes I place more emphasis on one thing than on another. I trade my picture as I see it. I am sure that all successful traders develop a 6th sense of what they are seeing and that sometimes they can't explain why something doesn't look right or when something does. This 6th sense is something that is developed through the creation of a solid trading plan and then SIM trading the plan until you can do it in your sleep without stress. Once you reach this point, you begin to get a sense of the market and see more than the sum of the parts of your picture. CP is now definitely here.

I was training today and did not trade so I thought I'd show some Kiki trades of the Euro FX.


Senin, 26 Juli 2010

What are "They" Doing

The focus of my trading is always to try and discover what "they" are doing. If I can figure that out, the rest is easy.

But who are "they"?

For me, "they" is what is left over when you take the differences between the buyers and the sellers. The nett nett of trading activity is the "they". It's the "they" that move the market. And "they" are quite clever in hiding what they are doing.

My first weapon in attempting to capture the "they" is my range bars. The range bars get rid of the noise and reveal more of the order flow. It reveals acceptance and rejection of price. If you have some of MarketDelta's inside the bar stuff then you get a more macro peak at this activity.

Next, I use the volume breakdown to discover if the trading is panic trading so I can see if I can fade it at the appropriate support or resistance level.

Of course I then have my beloved 33EMA, the one indicator I can't live without. The centre of the universe, the barometer of value.

Then of course Market Profile. MP shows value developing and moving. Acceptance and rejection of value. Selling above value and buying below value, or not. I can't imagine anyone being successful without MP.

Putting it all together, I see the whites of the eyes of the "they". Once I can see "they" I can join them. I trade with the "they" as its what "they" are doing that matters.

Jumat, 23 Juli 2010

Einstein on Trading

A hidden part of the genius of Albert Einstein's life was that he must have been a trader. Why do I think that without any tangible evidence? Because of the words from Einstein's own mouth.

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler"

"A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be."

"Everything that can be counted does not necessarily count; everything that counts cannot necessarily be counted."


The way I taught Kiki and what I am teaching the attendees at the current training is to think about what is possible and trade what you see. I try and not over complicate matters as it should be obvious enough. If it isn't obvious enough with the simple things then just complicating it to force a view won't help. If it isn't obvious enough then don't take the trade. The fact that it isn't obvious means that you would wait too long to enter and get a worse trade location which may end in a stop out or very little profit. I teach that an early aggressive entry is more profitable as you will get a better trade location and know sooner if you are wrong and will stop yourself out for a smaller or no loss.

The second saying quoted above refers to trading what you see. Although we try and create a vision in order to have a bias, if what you see does not fit the bias then obviously the bias is wrong. Our technique of re-evaluating at every bar close is important so that you know where you are and what the other market participants are doing.

And finally, the third quote refers to my "pictures". Readers of the blog know that I trade discretionary. I trade a picture of what I see. sometimes one colour (one of the things in my charts) has more importance than another. Sometimes something will be ignored when at other times that same thing is important.

It all depends on context. At times you can't quantify something. Sometimes its good if its at 2 and at other times I want to see it at 3. Depends on context.

All in all, I try and don't over analyse and get bogged down as if I did, I wouldn't be able to pull the trigger in time, if at all.

The chart below just shows some of the Euro FX future trades today. They were everywhere.

An impossible question

The woman interviewing me by phone last night caught me off-guard with a question I knew was coming, but yet I had no idea what to say.

"Where do you see yourself in three years?" she asked in the middle of my fourth job interview in the past 13 months.

"I really have no clue," I foolishly, yet honestly, stated. "Hopefully in Pittsburgh, and hopefully with a secure company."

STUPID!

But what was I supposed to say? Forget three years from now, I don't know where I'll be three months or even three days from now. It's a typical job interview question that probably is designed to measure your goals and priorities. And it's a question I had answered with ease in previous job interviews during my journalism career. I wanted to write for a NASCAR or sports publication, although those dreams are all but dead now.

Could I have ever imagined the correct answer to that question when the Observer-Reporter interviewed me in November 2006? "Well, I see myself struggling to pay my bills after you decide to can me -- along with 24 other people -- in the midst of a prolonged recession that essentially destroys the newspaper industry."

There is no good answer to that question when you're unemployed, because the most important goals are immediate: Finding work. After talking to my father about the interview, he offered an answer that might be appropriate should I be put on the spot again.

"Probably living in the gutter... unless you hire me!"

Perfect.

Kamis, 22 Juli 2010

Bias? What Bias?

The last few days in the ES have been rock n' roll. Up then down and then up again. Sometimes in the same day. Handling these changes is an important part of getting to CP.

During training, we go through an envisioning process to get a bias of how to trade. However, our vision is always subject to alteration. Its the market speaking its the only one that is right. We are really just a speck in the mass of the market's participants .

What we do is a multi look at what is/has happened at key times of a 24 hour day.

When the market closes, 4.15pm NY time, we have a look at the profile and how the market finished and create a vision of where we expect the top and bottom of the next day to be, the next day starting at 4.30pm NY time.

I sleep for the next 8 hours and when I wake up and get ready for the FESX (ET) open for 8am German time, I have another look at what happened during my night in the Asian time zone. This can sometimes be very significant. From this information, we make an adjustment to the vision. Always looking what the potential top and bottom of the range will be. What a Market Profile of the period might look like.

This takes us up to the pre-RTH period. We now have another 6 hours of trading to evaluate and revisit our vision, as before, and making the appropriate adjustments to our expectations of the potential range and expected Market Profile.

All this enables us to trade in the direction of the expected movement and to also have areas where we can try and anticipate a stop to the vertical Profile development so we can turn our direction around.

We re-evaluate the market at the close of every bar as a part of our regular SOP (standard operating procedure).

You didn't have to make many trades today to be very GREEN.

Unempalooza 2010

A buddy recently sent me a hilarious blog entry by state Sen. Daylin Leach, D-King of Prussia, that attempts to understand the reasoning behind Republicans blocking the jobless benefits extension. In his satirical blog entry, Leach imagines what prominent conservatives think the unemployed do all day as they celebrate Unempalooza 2010. Most nights, according to Leach, the unemployed snort Jaegermeister until the wee hours of the morning before rolling out of bed after noon. In other parts, Leach asks how middle-class Americans can be viewed by Republicans as hard workers until the day they're let go from a job. Then they're trash that must be swept to the curb. Here's my favorite line...

"You see most of the time, Republicans talk about how great the American worker is. They are the salt of the earth, and all of our policies should be directed towards helping "working families". They are "real Americans", not like liberal college professors or weird Kenyan/Indonesian Presidents of the United States. These are great people! Until the moment they lose their jobs. Then, they become lazy, predatory parasites, lazily suckling on the teet of Socialist Leviathan."

The full blog can be viewed by clicking on this link...

Rabu, 21 Juli 2010

Trade the Plan

We have been working very hard on the trading plans in the training. It is one of the keys to success. Firstly, defining it so you know exactly what to do, then SIM trading it to test it, then SIM trading it some more after you have corrected what was wrong and then SIM trading it some more until you can do it all instinctively and are CP in SIM.

But it all starts with the plan. "The Plan, the plan" (hope some of you remember old TV shows, Ricardo Montalban was the guy it was said to).

What the guys and gal in the training are doing is trading an initial TP (trading plan), gathering some statistics and experience in SIM, then also doing extensive back testing either manually or by computer. The walking forward test is the SIM after the adjustments.

When the "final version" (its never really final as its a living document) has been settled then its full speed ahead in SIM until CP in SIM is reached.

We started off with a single "picture" to trade. Some of the traders have a few variations but we are trying to keep it simple. The trading plans are all different. No two alike. And that's how it should be. They start from just a 1 page doc and go up to many pages, depending on the trader.

Max posted a comment yesterday with a link to a Trading Plan he found on the web. Although I don't agree with all of it, it does provide a list of all the things to consider. The trading plans the EL group have written are based on the things they have learned in the training. Most of them have already made a couple of revisions based on their experience.

Today's trade was just the Gap trade for me. It was not just a normal gap trade but also based on Pete Steidlmayer's "free exposure" concept. Those that have been fortunate to have taken classes from him or read the available material will know what I mean, if you don't, try 'Googling' it.

The ES RTH market opened at its highs, broke support of 1083.75 which triggered my trade and proceeded to go down to the support I found by splitting the profile. That was enough and I was finished working before the initial balance was in.


My thoughts exactly

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Jim Chukalas, an auto parts distribution manager living in New Jersey, lost his job nearly two years ago. On Monday, he became the de facto spokesman for the unemployed after appearing on The White House lawn with President Obama urging the Senate to extend jobless benefits. His comments remind me of many breadline stories I have heard -- including my own -- since this recession began. He spoke about his problems on MSNBC's Countdown with guest host Lawrence O'Donnell the other night.

"The automobile business is not where I would want to be trying to make a living right now," O'Donnell says near the end of the interview.

"It's tough, but it's all I know," Chukalas responds. "But it's a tough business right now. It's a tough time."

I hear ya, buddy. Just substitute "auto business" with journalism.

Selasa, 20 Juli 2010

Re-Entry

I think I have mentioned before, that there is an issue of starting to trade again after having taken a break.

I started trading again today after having stopped almost 2 weeks ago to prepare and teach the training. My first potential trade of the day was in the FESX on Eurex. I was too slow and should have lifted the offer instead of sitting on the bid at the open. The bus left without me.  Of course only the winning trades leave without you.

After that wake up call, I got my act together. I trade the FESX only for the first couple of hours and then switch to the ES. There were a number of good trades there in the pre RTH and afterward as well. The Gap trade was a bit of a knife catch but was successful today. The guys in the training are continuing their SIM trading today and we will have some nice stats by the end of the week. Sunday we go into the last week together in formal training. Everyone has a trading plan and it will be revised by each participant at the week-end so that the experience that they had during the week's SIM trading can be utilised.

We are looking at only the FESX and ES up until now but next week the 6E will come onto the horizon. If it trades as well as it did today then we will have some new experiences.


What's the jobless to do?

For those without a job, unemployment benefits are a lifeline. For our elected officials, it's a political football to be kicked around in anticipation of the upcoming midterm elections.

Despite the bickering, the federal government is now on the verge of passing a benefits extension that Republicans vehemently oppose. There are arguments on both sides about whether UC benefits help or hinder unemployed workers. Liberals argue that this money is immediately injected into the economy, which is true. Conservatives argue that it allows unemployed workers to be picky about jobs and reject substandard positions.

This argument may also be true. But what conservatives do not address is how subpar these positions might be. A job is a job, right?

James Sherk, a policy analyst at The Heritage Foundation think tank, told the Post-Gazette that unemployed workers will continue looking for jobs in their field rather than taking a position that pays less. That leads to longer unemployment, he said, because they are more willing to reject a position while still receiving benefits.

Well, obviously! Why wouldn't someone continue searching for jobs that they are qualified to do? And why wouldn't they expect to attain a similar salary level to what they had upon termination?

What conservatives will not say publicly when they are quoted in this manner is that they think the unemployed should take jobs normally reserved for high school kids during the summer. But for someone who has a mortgage, car payments and possibly children, how will a minimum wage job pay the bills? If this was my future, I wouldn't have spent the past decade studying communications at college before working in that field to boost my resume.

So let me pose this questions to the BLB readers. Do you think unemployed workers should accept subpar jobs that may not pay the bills rather than continue searching for a position in his/her field? With that in mind, let me also ask if you would voluntarily leave your current job and take another position that pays at least 25 percent less than what you're making now?

Senin, 19 Juli 2010

Is Trading Getting Harder?

The answer, as far as I am concerned is; It doesn't have to.

On Friday Alex sent me a link to a letter from Steven Schonfeld telling the Schonfeld clients that if the firm didn't believe that they were profitable enough or going to be profitable enough then he would pull the plug as it was in the best interests of proven unprofitable traders to do something else for a living. Schonfeld is a firm that has a long and honorable history of clearing locals and backing traders.  This is an understandable business decision. The part of the letter said in part: " But unfortunately, our vision of the future of trading has changed. It is getting much tougher for traders to make a living or get by."

I hesitate to disagree with a person with the experience and knowledge of the writer but I just have to give my opinion since I was asked.

Trading has always been tough. Ninety plus percent of all traders have been said to blow out within six months ever since I started trading many, many years ago. To me, nothing has changed. For Steve Schonfeld, the fact that his clients are trading electronically instead of on the floor seems to have made a significant difference in their success rate.

Lots of guys from the floor have not been able to make the transition to trading from upstairs. Whether this is because their edge on the floor was not a trading edge or whether it is because they can't read the order flow from upstairs, I don't know.

What I do know is:
  1. Trading is still the best profession in the world for many people
  2. Most people can be taught to trade electronically using a methodology like mine if the student is prepared to do a lot of work and carry out a structured and disciplined training program like the one I am currently delivering and they trade withing the amount of capital they have available, maintaining the proper attitude about losses that I have spoken about ad nauseum in this blog.

So, for me, its not tougher, its just a bit different. What is needed is a tested method of training people. One cynical and anonymous poster does not believe that the so-called EL method, or probably any other method,works.  I guess that is because of his own failure as we all judge others from our own experiences.

But facts are facts. People do succeed. Only 10% of them is the common assumption. I don't know whether it is really possible to change those statistics but I do know that it can be changed one trader at a time. Trading can be taught. Trading can be learned. You just have to do it right.


Sabtu, 17 Juli 2010

Training; the Story So Far

Its Sunday and just before 6am in France where I am for the weekend after a hectic round of 7 days of usually 14 hours a day in the training room.


We have 25 people working incredible hours along the path to CP. I have people from the west coast of the United States starting their "day" with me at 6.30am London time but its 10.30pm in California. There are guys from Australia who start work in the room at 6.30pm their time and are still there 14 hours later when the dawn is breaking in Sydney and Perth.


All the people in the room have a few things in common, they have a hunger for knowledge, they are determined to succeed as traders, and they realise that the harder they work, the luckier they get. Sadly there is just one lady in the room. Ladies make great electronic traders.


We started off with a couple of days of information overload and each day added another layer to complete the puzzle. By Friday afternoon, while the ES was melting down, I saw a bunch of previously breakeven or less traders, making consistently profitable paper trades of the ES, on a day that sadly must have sent a lot of traders back to their 9 to 5 jobs. During the week, I saw the lights turn on above the heads of some of the people in the room. I am sure all the 25 are not yet in the happy position of "getting it" but there is over 3 months to go and I know if they continue to work the way they are, our 1 to 1 sessions will catapault them to where they want to be.


So to all of you on the training, I`m having a ball, you are a great bunch and I am looking forward to seeing each and everyone of you consistently profitable. I think its a lot closer than you thought.

Jumat, 16 Juli 2010

Guest Blogger Val

 Hi from Kiki,

 I am posting another guest blogger tonight for EL as he is still training.  Thanks again Val.
 
I hope that with my post I will put thoughts about trading of some of the readers into long-term perspective. Learning to day trade in a country of good engineers, Germany, can become an additional obstacle to CP even with having that powerful tool, the Internet, and some very few truly pros  who are willing to give (fortunately). I am not going to talk about it here. The message I want to convey in the lines that will follow is “Learning to trade discretionary takes TIME”. So do not rush, especially when you just started!
When I got introduced to electronic day trading in 2007 by a professional futures trader who was featured in one of the Jack Schwager’s books, I saw candlesticks for the first time in my life. Having traded stocks in 2005-2007 and achieving 30% net gain on my working capital without using ANY indicators, made me become very self-confident, but on the other hand also ignorant to what this pro trader taught me about basics of trading in his seminar. The result was detrimental to my psychological well-being. After 3 months of SIM trading his methodology, I went live with one emini contract, suffered losses in my 3d week and stopped. The losses were much less what I lost trading stocks, but still it took me one full year to “get back to normal”…
And I am still in SIM. Do I regret it (I mean, 3 years of spending money for this stuff and getting no money back, you gotta be kidding)? NO! Because I have learnt a lot about myself and therefore will probably get to CP as fast as EL thinks we can during this 4month training period. I could keep writing about basics and about what every one should know before he/she starts and so on and on. Those who want to know will find out by themselves. I just want to state again: Learning to trade discretionary takes TIME. As any endeavour in our life! So take as much TIME as you feel you need. And do not forget your hard work ethic...
Hang in there,
Val

Losing control

The longer we slink around in the breadline, the more hopeless the situation feels. But there's also a sinking reality that goes with long-term unemployment: Total loss of control.

It feels as though we have control over nothing any more. It's a helpless feeling, whether it be the Senate failing to extend unemployment benefits or human resource workers chucking our resumes in the trash or companies deciding which professions are in demand.

I've applied for at least 10 jobs this week and called to inquire about two others. And each time, there is a certain euphoria after hitting the "submit" button. But by the next day, that high fades with the realization that those job applications probably will never see a supervisor's inbox.

This feeling is nothing new, of course. I busted my chops for the O-R before they sent me packing. I foolishly thought that you could keep your job by working hard for the company that cuts your paychecks. Silly me.

Then there is the decision by a local company not to hire me for an open public relations position. I'm not saying they didn't make the right decision, because I don't know who they eventually hired. But it does leave you with an empty feeling while waiting for a decision after the interviews and writing tests are completed.

Finally, I learned today that the state Department of Labor & Industry does not consider my work with the Tribune-Review a sideline business. Therefore, I am allowed to keep the unemployment compensation money I received during several weeks in 2009 in which the Trib published my $50 stories. However, I've been waiting nearly two months for a response to this question while other writers told me DLI decided to cancel their unemployment compensation due to their work.

Everything seems to be a waiting game, and I really don't know what will happen in most cases. And I don't like that feeling.

Kamis, 15 Juli 2010

Guest Blogger Alan

Hi from Kiki,

 I am posting the next guest blogger tonight for EL as he is still training.  Thanks again, Alan.

Anyone who’s been around trading for a while knows there are two critical aspects of trading success: (1) A methodology with a consistent statistical edge; and (2) The discipline to flawlessly execute the methodology.

Sounds simple, but like everything else in life, the devil’s in the details. That’s what the EL training is about – the details. We’ve only completed three days of a months-long process, but already we’re digging deep into both the mechanics of creating a tradable system, and the psychological mindset required to execute a trading plan.

I’ve been working on my trading plan every day, and each time I review it I see it’s lacking in – you guessed it – DETAILS. It’s the small stuff that reveals the big picture.  Sometimes we get lazy and think that if we can grasp the big stuff, the small stuff will follow. What we’re doing in the EL training is the other way around. It’s like that old Chinese proverb: “A thousand details add up to one impression.” Or as EL might say, “A thousand details add up to one picture” – a picture of what a good trade looks like.


Rabu, 14 Juli 2010

Guest Blogger Carlos

Hi from Kiki,

 I am posting the third guest blogger tonight for EL as he is still training.  Thanks again, Carlos.

Hi Tom,

I thought I would take a few minutes to share with you the benefit I feel that I am already receiving from your training program.  I know that I had a pretty good understanding of Market Profile (MP) and Auction Market Theory (AMT), but was always failing to execute properly against that framework.  I think part of the problem was that my initial trading education consisted primarily of trading simple MACD divergences and/or blindly fading established MP pivots, both of which are essentially trying to pick a top or a bottom.  I think your concepts of 'where are you on the playing field of price', and what is considered above or below value of the current price swing, will really help me on the execution front.  There are many trades I made just this past week that would of performed much better had I applied your concepts prior to entry.

I have used the Footprint bid vs ask chart for quite a while, and although I do appreciate the information it gives you, I think your framework for understanding price action bridges the gap for me, between the detail provided by that tool, and the higher level concepts provided by MP/AMT.  I can also appreciate the simplicity of focusing on just price and volume, and what they are telling you, vs trying to predict what will happen using 15 different sector and market internal charts to grab 2 points in the ES.  I look forward to stripping away some of the extraneous information I have built up over the years and focusing solely on what is really happening in front of me with respect to price action.  In many ways I expect this will be quite liberating.

Once again, thank you for this wonderful opportunity to redesign and refocus my trading efforts, and I look forward to taking my performance to a new level with your assistance. 
 

Selasa, 13 Juli 2010

NanoSat Centennial Challenge

The cost of getting to orbit is the real barrier to space exploration, settlement, and harnessing of off earth resources. The difficulty of the problem makes it hard for small innovative organizations to have a shot at making a launcher for commercially interesting payloads. Doing a nanosat launcher is not as difficult. The New NanoSat contest looks very good. If I had the resources to offer a significant prize it would look very similar to the NanoSat prize. I'd add some bells and whistles like a bonus for a reusable vehicle and a junior league 100gm category, but all in all it looks almost perfect.

Guest Blogger Steve

Hi from Kiki,

 I am posting the second guest blogger tonight for EL as he is still training.  Thanks again Steve!
 
As a reader of the Electroniclocal blog I have at my fingertips a valuable resource of knowledge and insight into the market. Even though I have shortened my learning curve with Tom's training everything he teaches is here on the blog for those willing to study hard, analyze, and reverse engineer what he is doing. Some of the most valuable lessons I have learned so far in training are discussed in the blog and have been reiterated in his teaching, and in my observations this week. First and foremost, is the importance of creating my own detailed trading plan. The what, where, why, and when I will enter a trade, and just as important, the what, where, why, and when I will exit a trade. The second critically important thing for me to do is to extensively test out my trading plan in simulation. How well does my trading plan work? How can I improve it? Then do a detailed statistical analysis of  trading results. Then revise and change as necessary. I used to think that simulated trading was of no value. But as Tom has repeated over and over, unless I believe  in my soul through repeated testing that my trading plan is successful I will not take every trade, and this is a recipe for disaster, and I will be in the category of the 90% of  traders that lose it all. I have learned this week that there are no short cuts to be successful in trading. I now realize that to make in this business, and this is a business I need to do a lot of hard, hard, work to be a part of the 10% of successful traders. Anyway, that’s my two cents worth.”

Senin, 12 Juli 2010

Guest Blogger Kevin


 Hi from Kiki,
 At 7.43pm London time,El is still in full training mode.  He has asked the webinar participants to guest blog and I am posting the first one tonight.  Thanks again Kevin!

You've proven your system, back tested it thoroughly and using context to guide you can make virtual money consistently in SIM trading.  Next you hit the market with real money - somehow you're unable to move to consistent profitability.  Your number one challenge is? ... You!  Somehow your mind keeps sabotaging your well thought out, objective trading plans.

I'm by no means new to the trading game but by no means a successful CP trader either, however, I've travelled far enough to have picked up every possible piece of information out there over the last four years; systems, books, courses, etc. only to throw most of it away and be left with what I think are the most useful and best bits to help me on my trading journey to CP.  What I've discovered is there is in fact very little required to become successful, most of what's out there is just noise.

With this in mind, if I had to choose to take just one trading book with me on my trading journey it would have to be Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas.  I've read many books on trading, I have over 30 books on the shelf behind me and no book sums up the essence of trading success better.  If you haven't read Trading in the Zone and you're serious about trading for a living then do yourself a huge favour and read this book now, don't delay, find a copy now and read it before you get going.  

I have incorporated many of the core concepts and beliefs about the market discussed in the book into my business plan. For example, I particularly like the "Five Fundamental Truths" of the market and I have pinned this list above my computer screen to remind me at all times:-

The Five Fundamental Truths of trading, with a Probability based mindset.  You have to believe in these without any doubt because they are true.
  1. Anything can happen.
  2. You don't need to Know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
  3. There is a Random Distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
  4. An Edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
  5. Every moment in the market is Unique.
Lastly, amongst many other things, I have added the following to my trading plan to remind that anything can happen in the market:-
·         I am rigid in following my trading rules and plans, this keeps me objective and my psyche happy, however,  I am flexible in my expectations, I adapt to change quickly, keeping in flow with market opportunities.

Thank me in November

Found this appropriate political cartoon by Ed Stein over the weekend. I was thinking the same thing upon learning the federal government had unceremoniously stripped away my unemployment compensation on June 5.

As Stein said in his explanation of the cartoon: "The new talking point is that extending unemployment benefits will only discourage people from looking for jobs. Oh, we lazy Americans. Fifteen million of us thrown out of work since the recession began, and we just don’t want to go back on the job because of those cushy benefits. Unemployment is our fault."

I certainly will remember that in November.

Jumat, 09 Juli 2010

Training Starts Tomorrow 1 PM London Time that is 8 AM in New York

The day has finally arrived. Everyone should have received their login invitation for Saturday.

Our group is eager and ready. I'll open the room at least an hour early for anyone who wants to do a last minute video and audio check. If you are logged into the room early, use your microphone to say "Hi" as I may not be in front of the screen. Formula 1 qualifying day. I won't see the race tomorrow as we'll be in the thick of training. World Cup Football (Soccer) Final starts after the day's training is over on Sunday. At least Wimbledon Tennis is over.

The goal of the training is to help each attendee create his own unique trading plan and for me to do the knowledge transfer to empower each trader to take his plan to CP.

As I have said, the training will be an iterative process, building from below the ground up. We build the foundation and then the trading structure. Each trader will start with just one, maybe two "setups" that they will use to get to CP.

SIM trading will start on 19 July and I will be getting feedback that I can use to refine trading plans and reinforce the discipline and focus needed to achieve CP in SIM. Once CP has been achieved - and we will have to decide what CP is for each trader - live trading will begin. I'll be right there for the next 90 days again refining trading plans and reinforcing discipline and focus and answering all the questions about things that come up.

All Saturday Attendees: If you spend a bit of time looking at today's ES charts you will have a head start as I will be using it tomorrow for training. I draw your attention to both the RTH and 24 hour profile, a vision and what happened in the first half hour.

I hope to have the attendees write some guest blogs to talk about how they are progressing.

Bring it on.


The merriment ends

The most glorious 46 weeks of my life have ground to a halt. My unemployment compensation has been terminated due to the Senate's inaction on the issue. I knew the end was coming, but what caught me by surprise is that the benefits actually ended on June 3. Apparently, my job working for the U.S. Census did not lengthen the UC benefits as they should have because I was earning auxiliary money. Instead, I'm pretty much screwed.

I contacted Adecco yesterday and likely will be working as an office secretary in the near future. Maybe I'll call a local freight contractor and get that job driving train crews from station to station.

This, of course, is what fiscal ideologues wanted. They want the unemployed to take subpar jobs that don't pay the mortgage. This is what they want for middle-class Americans. So this is what they're getting. And we'll soon find out what their experiment achieves as thousands of the unemployed lose their paychecks by the day. Welcome to the New America.

Kamis, 08 Juli 2010

We are all suckers

Changing jobs can be an exciting and worrisome time in one's life. But is anyone so important that they need to hand in their two-week notice on national television? Apparently, LeBron James and ESPN think so.

So since the four-letter network plans to air this insane spectacle of LeBron choosing his new basketball team, I thought it would be just as ridiculous to Live Blog the event. Do I really care about LeBron James and/or the NBA? Not a chance. But this opportunity to blog was just too stupid to pass up. See yinz at 9 p.m. sharp.

8:59 p.m. -- Anticipation is swelling on the four-letter network with most rumors pointing to Miami. That means it CAN'T be Miami, because that would blow all the fun, right? Meanwhile, ESPN is airing a viewers poll showing that its Miami with 99% precincts reporting.

9:01 p.m. -- "The Decision" rolls in with a throaty narrator introducing the show: "With breathless anticipation, the basketball world is waiting," the Morgan Freeman wannabe says. "The time has come. The most coveted free agent in the history of the game... LeBron James." It can't get any worse, can it?

9:05 p.m. -- A roundtable discussion of four talking heads puke up their opinions with no real clue about what's going to happen. Put me in a suit and I could offer a similarly mindless analysis of this colossal event. Roll B-footage about LeBron's career, as if we don't know who he is. I think it's time to grab a beer.

9:11 p.m. -- ESPN is milking this golden calf for all its worth as the commercials start rolling in. I would like to know who thought an hour-long special was a good idea. They could've pulled it off in five minutes and let the four-letter network roll around in the slop for the next four months.

9:17 p.m. -- Stu "Cyclopes" Scott is asking the panel AGAIN what they think "real quickly." How many times are they going to try to answer this question. Just ask the man himself, already! Just for good measure, they show the viewer poll again before sending us off to another commercial.

9:22 p.m. -- There he is! The time has finally arrived! Or not... Jim Gray is seated across from LeBron and asks him "what's new?" ARE YOU SERIOUS? WHAT THE HELL KIND OF QUESTION IS THAT?!?!

9:27 p.m. -- Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Let's get this charade over with. Although, Gray nearly let's him off the hook by asking him if he would like "to sleep on it."

9:28 p.m. -- LeBron James: "This fall, it's very tough, but this fall I'm going to take my talents to South Beach and join the Miami Heat." Hahaha, there are GROANS in the audience. As much as I hate Cleveland, this is the biggest middle finger I have ever seen given to a city (besides Bob Nutting owning the Pittsburgh Pirates).

9:30 p.m. -- "I never wanted to leave Cleveland," LeBron says moments after announcing that he's leaving Cleveland.

9:32 p.m. -- "You have to do what makes you happy," LeBron says, quoting his mother. Yet, he looks like he's about to cry. This is comically bizarre.

9:33 p.m. -- Now that he announced his decision, it's time to do more productive things like look for a job. Good luck, LeBron, in Miami. And I'd like to offer my condolences to Cleveland. At least you still have the Browns!

Trend Days

Pete Steidlemayer said that trading the next day after a trend days are especially great as you can get "free exposure". He said that there is a very high probability (I can't remember the % he put on it) that the market will open at the same price as it closed if the trend day had closed at or near its extreme. That means that with the ES yesterday's high at 1059.75 and the close at 1069.50 ish, we should AT LEAST trade at 1059.50 in the ES RTH.

That means that if I can buy below 1059.50 before RTH,  I should be able to get out at 1059.50 in RTH.  Its about 8.30am in London as I start writing this. I've had one profitable trade so far and I'm long again now at 1056.75. I'll take profit again before RTH if it stays quiet as I think I'll be able to re-enter again lower than whatever my exit price becomes.  If it gets cheaper, I'll double down and buy more. We'll see what happens.

There are lots of these techniques you can discover if you think about what the people are doing. Its not all about indicators. The charts just tell us what the traders are doing. If you take it one step further and think about the context you can work out, with a reasonable degree of probability, what the consequence of the present actions will be.

As of this moment, we still have a couple of groups of people who must buy. Firstly, there are shorts who are wrong and being squeezed and secondly, money managers who have missed the move up from 10000 and who have to get on board or they will lose customers. In this scenario, buying below 1059.75 for the next few hours seems like a good bet. Now we add our technical look of order flow and momentum for timing and we have a picture that can trigger. Q.E.D. as my old maths teacher used to say.

There are lots of support numbers below due to yesterday's trend day. I'll be looking at those all day.

Hiking to the summit



By Michael Jones
O-R Staff Writer
Sept 15, 2008

MEYERSDALE, Pa. - My knees weakened and palms began sweating as I climbed the rickety metal stairs to the observation deck overlooking Mount Davis in southern Somerset County.

A person afraid of heights probably shouldn't be venturing to the highest point in Pennsylvania, I thought, as I gripped the railing and took gingerly steps to the summit last week.

But upon reaching the top and standing more than 3,000 feet above sea level, the anxiety immediately turned to serenity as I gazed at the picturesque view of rural Pennsylvania and Maryland.

These acres at one time were owned by Civil War veteran John N. Davis, but he died in 1913 without knowing his land was the highest point in the state. It wasn't until 1921 that geologist Harold A. Bean definitively measured the height of what formerly was known as Davis Plateau. The highest elevation was previously thought to be Bedford County's Blue Knob at 3,136 feet, but Bean determined in May 1921 that this "bump on the mountain" was the highest at 3,213 feet.

Less than a month after Bean asserted the highest point actually was in Somerset County, thousands of people living in small towns around Negro Mountain celebrated the news by hiking to the summit on a rainy day on June 18, 1921, according to a story in the Meyersdale Republican newspaper. Led by the Alpine Club of Pennsylvania and its leader, Col. Henry W. Shoemaker, about 1,000 trekked to the top for the formal ceremony.

"The Alpinists do not pick the easy road to the summit, and the rougher the going and the harder the climbing the better it is liked," the club's secretary, J. Herbert Walker, told the Republican. "Of course, if there is a good road down from the summit, this is taken, but the ascent is made over the rocks and through the brush to test the mettle of the climbers."

The Alpinists suggested naming the summit Mount Freedom, but the county commissioners settled on Mount Davis its name for the past 87 years. It is located on top of Negro Mountain, a 30-mile range that runs through Somerset County and Garrett County, Md. The name evokes the story of a brave black servant, but it is now draped in controversy.

There are two relatively similar tales about the name's origin, both of which date to the French and Indian War during the mid-18th century, according to separate newspaper reports from 1756.

In one account, Col. Thomas Cresap led 71 volunteers from Fort Cumberland over the mountain and into Pennsylvania. Cresap was accompanied by a "large and powerful" black slave, believed to have been named Nemesis, when the group encountered three Indians on horseback. Nemesis raised his gun and the Indians jumped from their horses and hid behind trees. Nemesis showed courage in the fight but died during the battle.

In another story, Capt. Andrew Friend left the same fort with a hunting party heading for Ohiopyle in what is now Fayette County. They, too, encountered Indians and retreated. During the fight, an unnamed black servant was mortally wounded, but Friend and another man helped him off the trail and comforted him during the night. The man died before dawn, and they buried his body on the mountain. Upon returning to Fort Cumberland, Friend named the mountain after the man because of his bravery and the compassion showed after the fierce battle.

There are several other urban legends the locals continue to tell, and it remains a mystery which one is correct.

"We don't know the exact details, but because it was named Negro Mountain it did involve a black person," said Cynthia Mason, a researcher at the Meyersdale Library. "That's about as far as I can go with anything. It makes for interesting stuff."

However the mountain was named, it continues to raise eyebrows for some who travel over it on Route 40 or Interstate 68 in Maryland.

Democratic state Rep. Rosita Youngblood of Philadelphia sponsored a resolution last year that would have formed a commission to study renaming the mountain. She requested that the name of the mountain be reconsidered to "accurately reflect the history of the region and the heroism displayed by the African-American" involved in the fight on Negro Mountain.

She suggested renaming it Nemesis Mountain to update the historical significance of the battle and the man. The resolution has failed to gain any traction in state government, but the racial undertones of the name remain.

"My question is, 'Does it have to be Negro Mountain?'" Youngblood said. "The man had a name."

Rabu, 07 Juli 2010

Simple but not Easy?

The title of the blog today is an often said reference to trading. It really is not true. Truthfully, on reflection, trading is not simple, really. In the past, I've said its simple too but, on reflection, its not until you become CP. Its complicated and we make it even more complicated because we try and use a methodology that was successful in some other endeavour. And that doesn't work.

Trading is different. There are not too many experiences you can rely on that will help you trade.

A trader has to develop a whole new structure to rely on. A trader has to build that structure from below the ground. First, a foundation and then brick by brick, examining each piece before he accepts it and puts it into his structure. He needs to know what he doesn't know. The problem is we don't know what we don't know. I haven't read one book that helps in this regard.

The goal of the trader training I am starting on Saturday is to create a unique trading plan for each attendee and then do a knowledge transfer to give them the information they need to implement the plan. A bunch of attendees and each with a unique different trading plan.

Once there is a trading plan then the trader must SIM trade it until they are CP and can do it in their sleep. They then have to take the next leap and to replicate their SIM success with real money. They need to have focus and discipline, trade well within their financial comfort level and control the gremlins that appear in their heads that try and sabotage their compliance. My 90 day support of each trader will help a lot. In fact, it will be what takes them over the hump, hopefully.

As for me, I'll be over the moon as I hear CP, CP, CP..... How long will it take each person? I don't know as it depends on them. Each of us is responsible for our own actions and inactions. We bring with us a history that is in our heads.

Building that new structure to make us a trader is neither simple or easy but eminently doable by at least 10% of a random sample and hopefully up to 100% of my sample.

I can't wait to start.

Trades today were the result of the buyer showing his hand early. The break above support at 1.30pm London time put me on the right side of the market. By RTH, we were close to yesterday's close, so no Gap trade, and anyway, the market was still full of buying and pullbacks allowed rebuying scaled exits or re-entries if you're short term like I am again.

Selasa, 06 Juli 2010

The merriment continues

After going more than a month without hearing a peep from the company that interviewed me in May, it became crystal clear I hadn't been hired for the public relations position. Sure, I'm disappointed that I didn't get the job, but life and unemployment are full of frustrating roadblocks. But why did it it take six weeks after the final phase of the interview process to get word about the job?

I e-mailed a human resources person on June 14 to ask if they had made a decision. She told me they were going to pick the sweepstakes winner in a few days and then notify everyone the following week. With still no word three weeks later, I sent the same e-mail back this morning.

"A candidate has been chosen," the human resources representative responded in the e-mail. "You should have received an e-mail notification from the HR Dept."

Opps. Guess I don't check my e-mail nearly often enough.

A sustainable job was so close I could taste it. Then it lingered for two months in a continuous tease that can only be described as barbaric. Oh, well. It's bound to happen. But I just don't understand how a company searching for a public relations specialist could be so unorganized that it fails to communicate its hiring decision to a potential employee. Maybe they should've hired me to help them fix that little problem for them.

Turned it from Outside in to Inside out

My vision this morning was 100% wrong. I still ended up green on the day.

My morning started with the Dow Euro 50 and I got it all wrong. I sold the market. Outside in. It was a good idea at the time? No! I don't think I normally misread this badly. I think my personal bias and greed got the better of me.

Anyway, it happens and you have to get over it and re-think. It was difficult to buy the ESTX50 when the market was so over bought, but buy it I did.

I had a fleeting doubt when I sold at 2538. Price had bounced off yesterday's POC and I thought to myself: "Hey, this could scream up", and then my bias took over. I paid the price but bought the market and redeemed my day.

Normally, buying the highs like this is a newbie error and a reaction to being stopped out by a stop loss that was too close due to the trade location of the original trade being a bad location too far from resistance. The newbie gets stopped, thinks he's wrong turns it around and it goes 2 or 3 ticks and then tanks in the original direction of his first trade.

What happened today is not that. Today, the ES was bought during the Asian hours and it came into the European timezone up. The logical first trade is to fade the move against resistance when the momentum turns. That's what I did. When the resistance was taken out AND its clear that the flow was buying, I HAD to turn it around with a logical area where I had to bail out of the long as being a fake continuation. If that price was too far away, I had to pass on the trade.

When entering a trade, I always have an idea - nothing written in stone - of what I would need to see for me to realize I was wrong. In moves like today, it all takes place quite quickly. All the work in SIM pays off big time when you need to react.

Gap trade didn't work today. The sale was against the top of the Profile tail at 1033.00. It really didn't look like it would retrace to Friday's close but I was hoping for 5 handles. As it turned out, I didn't get another trade until the move topped and I could sell 1034.75 on the way down.


Senin, 05 Juli 2010

More printed Motor Progress


The printed Motor parts are all here, I have a few things to finish and it will be ready to run.
I made the tubes for the fuel input too short and connecting to them is going to take some creativity. The end cap with o-ring grove, clearance for flow and fingers to push down on the cat pack turned out well:
:
I've sent out the order to get the catalyst retainers water jet cut.
All the bits and pieces should be here by mid month. If I will decide to brave FAR/Mojave in peak summer is a different question. There is a real possibility it won't get tested till mid to late September. Business continues to go reasonably well, this means that I should be able to ramp up my rocketry projects after the first of the year.

No place like Daytona

This story originally appeared July 4, 2006 in the Charleston (W.Va.) Daily Mail

By Mike Jones
Daily Mail Staff

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. - NASCAR fans are a rare breed. Anyone who has ever attended a race knows that. The fans pay thousands of dollars for tickets, hotel rooms, parking and, most importantly, beer.

Bewildered outsiders don't even begin to understand. They ask why someone would shell out that kind of cash to watch cars drive in circles. What they don't realize is NASCAR is an experience that can't be explained on television. It must be felt in person.

I will never forget the first time I heard 43 cars roaring by at nearly 200 mph at Daytona International Speedway or the echoing thunder as they flew down the backstretch. The Fourth of July event at Daytona Beach, Fla., has changed somewhat since I attended my first Firecracker 400 in 1993. Track officials added lights to the high-banked oval in 1998, altering the race for both competitors and fans.

Previously, drivers weren't the only ones who sweated buckets when the green flag dropped at 11 a.m. in the 90-degree heat. Fans perspired beer faster than they could consume their cans of Miller Lite and Budweiser that are stowed in coolers under their seats.

With an 8 p.m. start now, visitors take trips to the beach or barbeque in parking lots in the morning and afternoon. Others wade in the hotel swimming pool for most of the weekend and the beer cans that line the edge of the pool document their progress.

In the 2005 edition of the Pepsi 400, rain began falling an hour before race time, prompting my father, stepbrother and me to march back to the hotel for a late-night swim. Other fans, many of whom weren't fortunate enough to have a hotel room next to Turn 4, waited out the three-hour rain delay in their seats and soldiered through the race that didn't end until nearly 2 a.m. Sunday. Exhausted fans that partied for nearly 19 hours simply crumpled in their seats and passed out moments after Tony Stewart took the checkered flag.

That wasn't the case in 2006 when the race passed rather quickly and we were able to get to bed before midnight. There were the usual drunks at the event. A Dale Earnhardt Jr. fan stumbled out of his hotel room on his way to the track and mumbled incoherently to others.

But instead of a rain soaked holiday, fans were treated that year to a cool summer breeze passing from the Atlantic Ocean as the race started as scheduled. The distinctive smell of Octane 110 firing from the exhaust pipes filled the air just moments after the command was given for drivers to start their engines. One man, spitting chew while lounging in his seat, waved the fumes toward his nose in a circular motion with a cupped handed.

Now this, I thought, is what racing is all about.

Most fans at the 2006 Firecracker 400 wore shirts emblazoned with Budweiser, Home Depot and Dodge, but some lesser-known drivers' gear was speckled in the crowd. My father, known by most of his friends as Hobie, wore a Joe Nemechek T-shirt and U.S. Army visor to support his favorite driver. Nemechek appeared to be poised for a good showing after qualifying fifth and my father was excited.

Nemechek, a native of Lakeland, had bought auto parts from my parents' store in the little central Florida town during the late 1980s while he was racing dirt bikes and stock cars at local tracks. He and his brother, John, who died in a crash at Homestead Speedway in Miami in 1996, often chatted about racing, prompting my father to root for Joe over the past 15 years.

It was a admirable position to pull for the underdog. But besides winning the 1992 Busch Series championship and a handful of Cup races, Nemechek hadn't done much in his career. Dad pulled for him anyway.

But this was to be the final time after years of disappointment took their toll. We had made a deal a few weeks earlier that he would re-evaluate that allegiance if Joe couldn't finish 17th or better in the Pepsi 400. The prized Nemechek shirt, it was agreed, would be torched in our $29.97 charcoal grill if he couldn't muster even a mediocre finish.

Just hours before the race, a good omen occurred as I met Nemechek in his "swag trailer" just outside the track. He signed a few autographs, and with a smirk and a nod, sent me on my way.

But not long after the green flag flew and Stewart jumped out to the lead, Joe began his usual descent to the back. We prepared ourselves for the impending barbeque as the laps ran down. With 14 laps left, however, Jimmie Johnson bobbled, sending his car into Bobby Labonte, who had an uncharacteristically strong run until the crash. A few laps later, a bigger pile-up collected more front-runners, catapulting Joe closer to the cutoff point.

But the late crashes weren’t enough for poor Joe. It wasn’t to be. We watched as Denny Hamlin and Brian Vickers sealed the shirt's fate while Nemechek stumbled to a 19th place finish.

As Stewart climbed the fence and mingled with thousands of fans who met him at the bottom of the flagman's stand, we trudged back to the hotel room in search of a lighter and a few bricks of charcoal. Before the race, my step-brother had vowed to save the shirt regardless of Nemechek's finish. Now, he was discussing pulling for Kurt Busch in honor of his favorite adult beverage.

We toasted the memories with the shirt aflame and my father, a closet Junior fan, closed the lid, and, more importantly, a chapter. But when we reopened the grill, the name "NEMECHEK" still was legible on the charred remnants of the cloth. At that point, I doubted my father ever could give up on the driver he had cheered for more than two decades.

When we return to Daytona, I expect my father will be just as dedicated to Joe Nemechek. He's truly a rare breed.

4th July Week-end

No chart today.

I had one trade in the ESTX50 (Dow Euro for those that don't trade it). I sold 2524 and bought 2509. I then went to meet one of the guys who will be attending the training. He was flying through London on the way back to the States and we had a coffee together in Sloane Square, in between his planes.

The people attending the training seem like a bright and motivated group. I have spoken to some on the phone and others only by email. I have great expectations for everyone.

I have sent out all the invitations to the subscribed training attendees so if you haven't got yours, please email me immediately. There are a couple of people still in the process of subscribing and you will get your invitations when you have completed that process.

And a special congratulations to one of the attendees whose wife just had a baby girl.  

Jumat, 02 Juli 2010

No Fireworks

1000 held yesterday in the ES. As I start writing this, We are over an hour before the jobs report. The market has been going sideways all morning in London. I took ticks here and there before I took the dog for a walk in the park. Now I'm waiting, along with the world, to see if we get pushed into the depths of minus 1000 or whether it Happy Days are Here Again and people go into denial about the huge problems evident all around us.

Number was an anti-climax. Price played pin ball for a couple of minutes until there was a clear trade about 3 1/2 minutes later selling short at 1024.50 ish and riding it down to the VAL of yesterday's 24 hour Profile. Yes, I follow both Profiles as there is support and resistance in both. The market sometimes clutches at straws and the volume is visible if you look.

I was really done for the day after that trade as there was about 7 points per contract in the trade. And RTH hadn't started yet. But I couldn't resist and traded until the volume ran down as people left for the 4th July week-end. Some colour changes to the chart.